医药生物周跟踪：从年报预告看中药板块2025年投资机会
ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-02-09 10:23

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The Chinese medicine sector is expected to see investment opportunities in 2025, despite facing pressure in 2024. Only three non-ST companies among 29 that disclosed their 2024 performance forecasts expect positive growth in net profit [20] - The improvement in gross margins for these companies is attributed to lower procurement prices for raw materials and optimized product sales structures. Operational efficiency and cost reduction are becoming key themes for development in the Chinese medicine sector [20] - The overall market for Chinese medicine is anticipated to recover, supported by declining prices of medicinal materials and the digestion of high inventory levels from previous periods [2] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Opportunities in Chinese Medicine - The performance forecast for the Chinese medicine sector in 2024 is under pressure, with only three companies expecting positive net profit growth. These companies benefit from improved gross margins due to lower raw material costs and optimized sales structures [20] - The operational efficiency of companies that achieve positive growth is generally better, as indicated by lower accounts receivable turnover days compared to those with negative growth [20] 2. Market Recovery Outlook - The Chinese medicine sector is expected to experience a recovery in 2025, with a gradual increase in gross margins as medicinal material prices decline. Additionally, the completion of inventory digestion is likely to lead to improved sales dynamics [2] - The policy environment is also becoming more favorable, with the impact of centralized procurement and price comparison policies expected to moderate [2] 3. Recommended Companies - Companies with strong brand power and effective price control, such as Dong'e Ejiao, Tongrentang, and Pianzihuang, are recommended for investment. Other companies like Tianshili and Jichuan Pharmaceutical are expected to benefit from valuation recovery [2]