公用事业2024年业绩前瞻：火电具备弹性 水电整体回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report anticipates a significant recovery in hydropower performance in 2024, while thermal power shows resilience due to falling coal prices [5][6] - The green energy sector continues to face challenges, with revenue growth not translating into profit increases [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of regional supply-demand dynamics for thermal power companies, recommending those with better supply-demand conditions [5] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Except for Huaneng International, thermal power companies showed high growth in the first three quarters of 2024, with an expected positive impact from falling coal prices in Q4 [5] - The report notes a significant drop in coal prices starting mid-November 2024, which is expected to boost thermal power performance [5][6] Hydropower - Hydropower performance is expected to improve significantly in 2024, driven by a return to normal rainfall levels in the first three quarters [5] - However, Q4 is projected to see weaker rainfall, leading to potential profit differentiation among hydropower companies [5][6] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power performance is expected to remain stable, with growth differences primarily due to the commissioning schedule of new units [5] Green Energy - The green energy sector is under pressure, with a mismatch between revenue growth and net profit growth due to high abandonment rates and market price pressures [5] - The report suggests that a reduction in impairment losses in 2024 could lead to year-on-year performance improvements for some companies [5] Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor companies like Yangtze Power for their stable cash flow and strong risk resistance [5] - For the coal power sector, the report recommends focusing on companies with favorable supply-demand conditions, such as Sheneng Shares and Waneng Power [5] - In the green energy sector, companies with a higher proportion of wind power, such as Longyuan Power and Datang Renewable, are highlighted as more favorable investment options [5]