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煤炭开采行业周报:库存去化,煤价偏稳,短期承压但配置仍优
Xinda Securities·2025-02-09 11:50

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - Despite high coal inventories, a continued decrease is expected due to cold weather and the gradual resumption of downstream operations, leading to stable coal prices [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a medium to long-term gap still present [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of February 7, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 756 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3][28] - The international thermal coal FOB price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 89.8 USD/ton, also unchanged [3][28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1490 CNY/ton, remaining stable [3][31] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 80.7%, an increase of 5.4 percentage points week-on-week [11][12] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 51.5 thousand tons/day, a rise of 17.27% week-on-week [11][12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has risen by 48.1 thousand tons/day, a significant increase of 45.94% week-on-week [11][12] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, coal inventories in coastal provinces have increased by 136 thousand tons, a 0.39% rise week-on-week [11][12] - Inland provinces have seen a decrease in coal inventories by 4.531 million tons, a 5.13% drop week-on-week [11][12] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown resilience, with companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others being highlighted for their stable operations and strong performance [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [12]