有色钢铁行业周观点（2025年第6周）：关税或推升避险与通胀，关注黄金股投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the tariff threats from the U.S. may elevate market risk aversion and exacerbate domestic inflation, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [9][16]. - Steel prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with a notable increase in rebar consumption and slight price rises across various steel products [17][44]. - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are expected to see price increases due to supply-demand imbalances, while precious metals are projected to rise in response to inflation expectations and increased central bank gold purchases [19][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Macro Perspective - The announcement of a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada by U.S. President Trump is expected to boost global market risk aversion and increase inflationary pressures in the U.S. [9][16]. 2. Steel Industry - Rebar consumption has risen to 1.32 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.52% [21]. - The average price index for steel has slightly increased by 0.12%, with specific products like medium-thick steel rising to 3,515 CNY/ton [44]. - The overall steel inventory has increased by 31.02% week-on-week, while the total inventory has decreased by 9.35% year-on-year [29]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China surged to 63,680 tons in December 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 51.51% [49]. - The demand for new energy vehicles has significantly increased, with December 2024 production reaching 1.4546 million units, a year-on-year rise of 31.22% [53]. 4. Industrial Metals - The LME copper price settled at 9,288 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.76% [19]. - The copper smelting fee has turned negative, indicating potential upward pressure on copper prices due to supply constraints [19]. 5. Precious Metals - The COMEX gold price rose to 2,886.1 USD/ounce, with a week-on-week increase of 3.91% [19]. - The non-commercial net long positions in gold have increased to 302,508 contracts, indicating growing bullish sentiment [19].