Alphabet(GOOGL) 国信证券·2025-02-10 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alphabet (GOOGL.O) is "Outperform" [5] Core Insights - The advertising business continues to grow at a double-digit rate, driven by strong performance in financial services and retail, while cloud growth has slowed due to supply constraints [1][8] - The company has increased its capital expenditure target for 2025 to $75 billion, reflecting confidence in AI investments [2][10] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been slightly lowered due to ongoing supply issues in the cloud business, with expected revenues of $400 billion and $450.6 billion respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY24Q4, the company reported revenue of $96.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a GAAP gross margin of 57.9% [1][11] - Advertising revenue reached $84.1 billion, up 10.2% year-on-year, with search ads benefiting from strong demand in the insurance and retail sectors [8][11] - Google Cloud revenue was $11.955 billion, reflecting a 30.1% year-on-year increase, although growth has slowed due to supply constraints [9][12] Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for Q4 2024 was $14.3 billion, a 30% increase year-on-year, with a projected total of $75 billion for 2025, up 43% from previous expectations [2][10] Earnings Forecast - The company expects a slight decline in advertising revenue growth in 2025 due to high base effects in financial services, while cloud revenue is anticipated to accelerate in the second half of the year as supply constraints ease [3] - Net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to $109.2 billion and $124.4 billion respectively, reflecting a 3% and 1% decrease from previous estimates [3]