农业周观点：24Q4基金配置略低标准，头部宠企增持

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to exceed that of the CSI 300 index in the next six months [54]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the pet economy, particularly in the pet food sector, which is expected to maintain a high growth rate. The focus is on leading domestic pet food companies that are expanding their market presence and enhancing brand strategies [3][11]. - In the livestock sector, there is a notable increase in pig sales, with December sales reaching 16.76 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 22.45%. The average price of pigs has shown a slight decline, but the overall market remains robust due to strong domestic demand [4][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the animal health sector, which is expected to recover alongside improvements in livestock operations. The concentration of the industry is increasing, benefiting larger companies with strong R&D capabilities [5][6]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - In December, 13 pig companies reported a total sales volume of 16.76 million heads, with a month-on-month increase of 22.45%. The average price of pigs was 15.71 yuan/kg, down 0.88 yuan/kg from the previous month, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 5.30% but a year-on-year increase of 9.55% [4][18]. - The average weight of pigs sold in December was 129.26 kg, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.09% [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading livestock companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, which have strong growth potential [5]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is expected to recover as livestock operations improve. Historical data shows that years with better livestock profits correlate with higher sales in the animal health sector [5]. - The report notes that the domestic animal health market has significant growth potential, particularly in the pet veterinary medicine sector, which is expected to see accelerated domestic substitution [6]. Planting Industry - The report discusses global grain supply and demand, highlighting adjustments in production forecasts for wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans for the 2024/25 season. For instance, global wheat supply is expected to increase slightly, while consumption is projected to decrease [7][8][9][10]. - The focus on seed industry revitalization is emphasized, with policies aimed at promoting the development of superior seed varieties and biotechnology [10]. Pet Industry - The report projects a compound annual growth rate of 17% for pet staple foods, 15% for pet nutritional products, and 25% for pet snacks by 2026, indicating a strong upward trend in pet consumption [11][12]. - It recommends focusing on leading domestic pet food companies such as Guai Bao Pet and Zhong Chong Co., which are well-positioned to capitalize on this growth [12].