国内观察：2025年1月通胀数据：春节错位影响明显，服务仍然强于实物消费品

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2025, the CPI year-on-year increased to 0.5%, up from 0.1% in December 2024, while the month-on-month change was 0.7%, compared to 0.0% previously[3] - The PPI year-on-year remained at -2.3%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%[3] CPI Analysis - The January CPI increase was influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival, but the month-on-month growth of 0.7% was weaker than the average of 1.09% for Spring Festival months since 2010[3] - Service prices showed strong performance, with significant increases in airfares (27.8%), transportation rentals (16.0%), tourism (11.6%), and movie tickets (9.6%) month-on-month[3] Core CPI and Consumer Prices - Core CPI rose 0.5% month-on-month, reaching a year-on-year high of 0.6%, the highest since June 2024, driven mainly by service prices[3] - Consumer goods prices increased by only 0.6% month-on-month, indicating a continued trend of price reductions to boost sales[3] Food Prices - Food prices increased by 1.3% month-on-month, ending a three-month decline, but remained below the average of 3.29% for Spring Festival months since 2010[3] - Fresh vegetables and fruits saw month-on-month increases of 5.9% and 3.3%, respectively, but both were lower than seasonal averages[3] PPI Insights - The PPI month-on-month change of -0.2% was weaker than the 0.04% average for the same period over the past five years[3] - The structure of PPI showed stable living materials but a decrease in production materials, with mining and processing sectors experiencing declines of -0.2% and -0.3% respectively[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, slower-than-expected consumer recovery, and uncertainties in tariff policies[3]