THDB(600867) 东方证券·2025-02-10 02:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8.48 CNY based on a 19x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance due to the impact of centralized procurement on certain insulin products, leading to a downward revision of revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 [2][6]. - The company is actively advancing its R&D projects, particularly in the GLP-1 and gout treatment areas, with several clinical trials progressing well [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 2,778 million CNY, with a projected decline to 2,177 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,903 million CNY in 2025 and 3,489 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a -15.0% growth in 2022 and a -29.2% decline in 2024 [3][10]. - Operating profit is expected to drop significantly from 1,829 million CNY in 2022 to just 50 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 1,001 million CNY in 2025 and 1,320 million CNY in 2026 [3][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 1,582 million CNY in 2022 to 41 million CNY in 2024, with a recovery to 854 million CNY in 2025 and 1,128 million CNY in 2026 [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to fall from 0.81 CNY in 2022 to 0.02 CNY in 2024, then rise to 0.44 CNY in 2025 and 0.58 CNY in 2026 [3][10]. R&D and Market Expansion - The company is seeing robust growth in its insulin products, particularly in the second half of 2024, with a projected sales increase of over 300% for its Aspart insulin series due to new hospital admissions [6][7]. - The overseas business is expected to achieve over 100 million CNY in revenue in 2024, nearly doubling year-on-year [6][7]. - Ongoing clinical trials for innovative drugs, including GLP-1/GIP dual receptor agonists and gout treatments, are progressing well, indicating a strong pipeline for future growth [6][7].