未来随着多方面积极因素累积，房地产行业有望迎来底部

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to reach a bottom by 2026 due to the accumulation of various positive factors driving overall economic improvement. The current economic recession is attributed to the downturn in the real estate sector, but recovery will not solely depend on this industry. Multiple factors, including real estate debt issues, fiscal and monetary policies, and government efforts to boost consumption, will influence the overall economic situation [3][41] - The report highlights the potential for further monetary policy easing, with the central economic work conference in December 2024 signaling a return to "moderately loose monetary policy," reminiscent of the measures taken during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. The LPR has seen cumulative declines of 105 basis points over three years, with significant reductions in interest expenses for existing mortgage holders [3][41] - Two effective methods observed to stabilize first-hand housing sales are "adjusting regulations" and "land exchange." Adjustments in building regulations and land planning have led to high sales in new properties, while land exchange can accelerate inventory reduction and improve liquidity for local governments and real estate companies [3][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the sixth week of 2025, the real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index with a relative return of 0.6%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3892.70 with a weekly increase of 2.0%, while the real estate index closed at 2265.87 with a weekly increase of 2.6% [11][14] Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities increased by 7.8% compared to the previous week, totaling 0.52 million units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities surged by 103.0%, reaching 0.67 million units [15][22] Policy Developments - National policies include ongoing support from the China Development Bank for affordable housing construction. Local policies have seen changes such as new regulations in Ningbo regarding balcony measurements and adjustments in property tax policies in Chongqing [13][20] Company Announcements - Several companies have made significant announcements, including Vanke A regarding guarantee progress and Rongsheng Development about asset acquisition and fundraising [39][41]