房地产行业周报：未来随着多方面积极因素累积，房地产行业有望迎来底部

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to reach a bottom by 2026 due to the accumulation of various positive factors driving overall economic improvement. The current economic recession is attributed to the downturn in the real estate sector, but the recovery of the overall economy will not solely depend on real estate [2][3] - Key factors influencing the economic situation include the transmission of real estate debt issues, fiscal and monetary policies, increased consumer spending, stock market performance, and exchange rates. The report emphasizes the potential for further easing of monetary policy, with the central economic work conference in December 2024 signaling a return to "moderately loose monetary policy" [3][41] - The report highlights two effective methods observed for stabilizing first-hand housing sales: "adjusting regulations" and "land exchange." Adjustments in building regulations and land planning have led to a surge in sales in cities like Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, indicating that there are still ways to shift sales from second-hand to first-hand properties [3][41] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the sixth week of 2025, the real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index with a relative return of 0.6%. The CSI 300 index closed at 3892.70 with a weekly increase of 2.0%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2265.87 with a weekly increase of 2.6% [11][14] Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities increased by 7.8% compared to the previous week, totaling 0.52 million units. Second-hand home sales in 21 major cities surged by 103.0%, reaching 0.67 million units [15][22] Policy Developments - National policies include ongoing support from the China Development Bank for affordable housing construction and supply. Local policies have seen changes such as new regulations in Ningbo regarding balcony calculations and adjustments in property tax policies in Chongqing [13][19] Land Market Activity - The land market activity decreased in the sixth week, with a total land transaction value of 4.88 billion yuan, down by 90.63 billion yuan from the previous week. The average premium rate for land transactions in 36 major cities was 0.0%, indicating a significant drop [26][34] Company Announcements - Several companies, including Vanke A and Rongsheng Development, have made significant announcements regarding asset purchases, share repurchases, and other corporate actions, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the sector [40][41]