茅台酒春节观察与预判

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - During the Spring Festival peak season, the demand for Moutai liquor remains stable, with the flagship product "Feitian" being particularly prominent. The overall demand has improved compared to the weak performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival in 2024, although there are significant structural differences in demand [1] - The price of Feitian has remained stable, with the whole box price at 2270 yuan and the single bottle price at 2240 yuan, largely due to the company's effective channel management and diversified consumer purchasing patterns [1] - Non-standard products have seen a decline in both volume and price, with demand weaker than that for Feitian. The prices for premium and 15-year products are at recent lows, while Moutai 1935 has shown a high cost-performance advantage at around 700 yuan, leading to a noticeable reduction in channel inventory [1][4] Summary by Sections Observations - Observation 1: The price of Feitian remains stable due to effective company control, with minimal fluctuations before the Spring Festival [1] - Observation 2: Prices for personalized products are weak, with premium prices around 2700 yuan and 15-year prices around 5050 yuan, both at market lows since 2021 [4] - Observation 3: Moutai liquor remains in high demand, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand. Its social attributes are irreplaceable during the Spring Festival, a critical consumption period [11] - Observation 4: The social attributes of Feitian are more pronounced compared to other products, which have not stimulated additional demand despite lower prices [11] - Observation 5: Moutai 1935 has gained popularity due to its cost-effectiveness, with sales revenue reaching approximately 12 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong market position [12] Predictions - Prediction 1: Moutai liquor prices are expected to continue in a downward trend, with a pressure point around 2000 yuan. The company is adjusting product offerings to stimulate demand, which may impact Feitian prices [13] - Prediction 2: The company is enhancing its control mechanisms, utilizing a comprehensive channel system to improve supply-demand matching [13] - Prediction 3: The internationalization strategy is crucial, with export volumes exceeding 2100 tons in 2024, marking a significant revenue milestone [14]