【浙商金工】消费破局,科技突围——2025年2月量化行业配置月报

• The report utilizes a fundamental quantitative model to derive sector allocation recommendations based on historical data analysis [5][6][7] - The comprehensive strategy is constructed by allocating weights to sectors with upward or stable prosperity signals, while sectors with stable signals are assigned half the weight of those with upward signals [2][28] - The quantitative model's recent performance shows a monthly return of 0.3%, with excess returns of -1.1% relative to both the equal-weighted industry index and CSI 800 [2][28] - The automotive sector is identified as having upward prosperity signals, supported by policy incentives like trade-in programs and improving M1 growth rates, which sustain double-digit sales growth [8][9][11] - The building materials sector is highlighted for valuation recovery opportunities due to optimized supply-demand dynamics, evidenced by declining clinker inventory ratios [14] - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity, driven by stabilization in real estate cycles and price recovery in new energy-related materials like lithium and photovoltaic products [15] - The photovoltaic sector shows initial signs of supply-demand improvement, with rising production and export growth rates alongside price stabilization, indicating potential recovery [17][18][20] - The new energy vehicle sector is projected to recover as lithium carbonate prices stabilize, signaling a balance in supply-demand dynamics [22] - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to benefit from government subsidies and AI-driven demand growth, with leading companies showing marginal revenue improvement [23][24][26]