国君策略|转势的往事:90 年代日本财政政策复盘与启示

Group 1: Key Conclusions - The report emphasizes a "new three arrows" model for China's economic development, focusing on debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization[1] - Current market misconceptions include the belief that debt resolution does not stimulate demand, an overemphasis on fiscal scale, and underestimating the complexity of economic recovery[1] - Historical lessons from Japan (1992-1996) indicate that debt resolution is crucial for demand stimulation and mitigating systemic financial risks[1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Japan's fiscal stimulus from 1992 to 1996 led to three rounds of market rallies, characterized by valuation recovery followed by profit increases[2] - The initial market rally was driven by expectations of incremental policy changes and economic demand recovery, while the downturn was linked to policy shifts and ineffective fiscal measures[2] - In the context of China's "transformation bull market," growth sectors aligned with industrial trends are expected to provide significant mid-term excess returns[3] Group 3: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on the period of incremental policy effects while avoiding the verification phase of policy outcomes[3] - Growth sectors such as AI, humanoid robots, smart driving, and low-altitude economy are highlighted as key areas for potential excess returns[3] - Stable dividend sectors like electricity, transportation, and Hong Kong internet stocks are recommended for foundational investment due to their stable return on equity (ROE)[3] Group 4: Risks and Limitations - The report notes the limitations of historical Japanese experiences and the uncertainties posed by global geopolitical factors[4]