百胜中国：同店是决定2025年业绩与股价表现的关键因素

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (YUMC.US/9987.HK) with a target price of $61.5, representing a potential upside of 27.1$48.4 [2][24]. Core Insights - Same-store sales performance is identified as a key factor influencing the company's 2025 earnings and stock price. The company anticipates a slight decline in same-store sales for 2024 due to adjustments in customer pricing to maintain steady traffic. However, operational efficiency improvements are expected to offset the negative leverage impact, allowing for slight margin expansion [1][4]. - The management's cautious outlook for 2025 reflects uncertainties in same-store performance, which is expected to significantly impact restaurant profit margins. The company aims for systematic revenue growth in the mid-single digits for 2025, with a target of opening 1,600-1,800 new stores [4][6]. - The competitive landscape is observed to be stabilizing, with some industry players reducing discounts and slightly increasing menu prices. Yum China plans to maintain stable pricing for KFC while lowering prices for Pizza Hut to attract more customers [4][11]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Yum China are as follows: - 2023: $10,978 million - 2024:$11,303 million (3.0% growth) - 2025: $11,720 million (3.7$12,509 million (6.7% growth) - 2027: $13,281 million (6.2$827 million - 2024: $911 million (10.2$924 million (1.4% growth) - 2026: $996 million (7.8$1,099 million (10.4% growth) [6][9]. Market Performance - The current market capitalization of Yum China is approximately $18,253 million, with an average daily trading volume of$102.9 million over the past three months [2][4]. - The stock has traded within a 52-week range of $28.5 to$52.0, indicating significant volatility [2][4].