大和：将百胜中国目标价一举升至438港元 上调至"买入"评级 金十数据4月11日讯，大和的研究报告指，料百胜中国(09987.HK)今年首季的同店销售增长持平，好过 市场预期；而近期由流动性带动的回调提供一个良好的入市时机。该行料公司今年首季的系统销售及盈 利分别录得6.3%及6.9%的按年增幅。该行将百胜中国今明两年的每股盈利预测分别上调4.6%及3.7%， 将目标价由275港元一举升至438港元，评级由"跑赢大市"升至"买入"，并为该行所覆盖的消费板块中的 首选股。 ...

2024 年度 報告 Yum China Holdings, Inc. 百勝中國控股有限公司 紐交所代號 : YUMC 港交所代號 : 9987 | 前瞻性陳述 1 | | --- | | 業務 2 | | 有關高級管理人員的資料 26 | | 風險因素 28 | | 財務概要 72 | | 73 管理層討論及分析 | | 董事及高級管理層 99 | | 104 董事會報告 | | 企業管治報告 125 | | 142 獨立會計師報告 | | 合併財務報表 148 | 前瞻性陳述 本年度報告包括1933年證券法（經修訂）第27A條及 1934年證券交易法（經修訂）（「交易法」）第21E條所定 義之「前瞻性陳述」。我們擬將所有前瞻性陳述予以 涵蓋於1995年美國私人證券訴訟改革法案的安全港 條文範圍內。 可基於並非嚴謹陳述歷史或當前事實的特點識別前 瞻性陳述。該等陳述通常包括「可能」、「將」、「估 計」、「擬」、「尋 求」、「預 期」、「預 測」、「預 計」、 「相 信」、「計 劃」、「可」、「目 標」、「預 料」、「相 當 可 能」、「應」、「預 想」、「展 望」、「模 型」、「繼 續」、「持續」等詞彙或其他 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [5][11]. Core Insights - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of 11.30 billion USD for 2024, a 3% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [2][11]. - In Q4 2024, revenue reached 2.60 billion USD, reflecting a 4% year-over-year growth, and adjusted net profit was 115 million USD, up 11% year-over-year [2][11]. - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated between 700 to 800 million USD [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut system sales grew by 5% and 3% respectively, with same-store sales declining by 1% and 2% [2][11]. - KFC's order volume increased by 3%, while average transaction value decreased by 4%; Pizza Hut's order volume rose by 9%, with a 10% drop in average transaction value [2][11]. - The total number of restaurants reached 16,395 by the end of 2024, with a net increase of 1,751 restaurants, representing a 12% annual growth [3][11]. Digital and Delivery Growth - By the end of Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut had over 525 million members, contributing to 65% of sales [4][11]. - Digital orders accounted for 90% of restaurant income, totaling 9.60 billion USD for the year, while delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, making up 39% of restaurant income [4][11]. Cost Control and Efficiency - The report highlights improved cost control measures, with raw materials accounting for 31.9% of income (down 0.5 percentage points), staff costs at 28.2% (down 0.8 percentage points), and rent and other expenses at 27.6% (down 0.3 percentage points) [4][11]. - The restaurant profit margin for Q4 2024 was reported at 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [3][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 950 million USD, 1.01 billion USD, and 1.07 billion USD, with growth rates of 4.3%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][11]. - The target price is set at 431.8 HKD per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yum China Holdings [5][11]. Core Insights - Yum China Holdings reported a revenue of 11.30 billion USD for 2024, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth, with an adjusted net profit of 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [2][11]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.60 billion USD, a 4% increase year-over-year, and an adjusted net profit of 115 million USD, marking an 11% growth year-over-year [2][11]. - The overall system sales for KFC and Pizza Hut grew by 5% and 3% respectively, while same-store sales declined by 1% and 2% [2][11]. - The company plans to add approximately 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with capital expenditures estimated between 700 to 800 million USD [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total revenue reached 11.30 billion USD, with a 3% year-over-year increase, and net profit was 911 million USD, up 8% year-over-year [6][11]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 2.60 billion USD, a 4% increase year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit of 115 million USD, reflecting an 11% growth year-over-year [2][11]. - The diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was 0.30 USD, a 30% increase year-over-year [2][11]. Restaurant Expansion and Performance - By the end of 2024, the total number of restaurants reached 16,395, with a net increase of 1,751 restaurants, representing a 12% annual growth [3][11]. - KFC had 11,648 stores, with a net increase of 1,352 stores (+13%), while Pizza Hut had 3,724 stores, with a net increase of 412 stores (+12%) [3][11]. - In Q4 2024, restaurant income was 2.43 billion USD, with a profit margin of 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-over-year [3][11]. Digital and Delivery Growth - By the end of Q4 2024, KFC and Pizza Hut had over 525 million members, with member sales accounting for 65% of total sales [4][11]. - Digital orders for 2024 reached 9.60 billion USD, representing 90% of restaurant income, while delivery sales grew by 14% year-over-year, making up 39% of restaurant income [4][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned 1.50 billion USD to shareholders in 2024, which is about 8.5% of its market capitalization [4][11]. - The cash dividend per share is set to increase by 50% to 0.24 USD [4][11]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 950 million USD, 1.01 billion USD, and 1.07 billion USD, with growth rates of 4.3%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][11]. - The target price is set at 431.8 HKD per share based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable operations with improved efficiency and resilience, achieving a revenue of $11.303 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of $911 million, up 10% year-on-year [5][11]. - The growth was primarily driven by store expansion, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, and a net increase of 1,751 stores during the year [6][10]. - KFC outperformed Pizza Hut, with KFC revenue at $8.509 billion, a 3% increase, while Pizza Hut revenue was $2.260 billion, a 1% increase [7][11]. - The company plans to accelerate store openings, targeting 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a capital expenditure of $700 million to $800 million [10][11]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of $2.595 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $115 million, up 19% year-on-year [5][11]. - The restaurant profit margin for 2024 was 15.7%, with Q4 margin at 12.3%, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [9][11]. - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4.6%, 6.3%, and 5.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 2.2%, 10.9%, and 12.4% [11][13]. Store Expansion and Innovation - The company aims to increase the proportion of franchise stores, targeting 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut in the coming years [10][11]. - Continuous innovation in menu offerings and business models is planned to expand market share [10][11]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2024 and plans to return $3 billion from 2025 to 2026 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable operations with improved efficiency and resilience, achieving a revenue of $11.303 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit of $911 million, up 10% year-on-year [5][11]. - The growth was primarily driven by store expansion, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, contributing significantly to revenue growth [6][10]. - KFC outperformed Pizza Hut in terms of revenue growth, with KFC generating $8.509 billion, a 3% increase, while Pizza Hut's revenue was $2.260 billion, a 1% increase [7][11]. - The company plans to accelerate store openings, targeting 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a capital expenditure of $700 million to $800 million [10][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 385.00, with a total market capitalization of HKD 1,448.39 billion and a debt-to-asset ratio of 42.21% [4]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of $2.595 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $115 million, up 19% year-on-year [5][6]. - The restaurant profit margin for 2024 was 15.7%, with Q4 showing a profit margin of 12.3%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [9][11]. Future Outlook - The company aims to reach 20,000 stores by 2026, with a focus on increasing the proportion of franchise stores [10]. - Shareholder returns are projected to be $1.5 billion in 2024 and $3 billion from 2025 to 2026 [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue growth is expected to be 4.6% in 2025, 6.3% in 2026, and 5.7% in 2027, with net profit growth of 2.2%, 10.9%, and 12.4% respectively [11][13].

Financial Performance - Total revenue grew by 3% to $11.3 billion, marking a new high since the spin-off; excluding foreign currency effects, revenue would have increased by 5%[6] - Total revenue for 2024 reached $11,303 million, a 3% increase from $10,978 million in 2023[28] - The company reported a total revenue of $900 million, representing a 10% increase year-over-year[34] - Total revenue for the company reached $11,911 million for the year ending December 31, 2024, with KFC and Pizza Hut contributing $8,509 million and $2,260 million, respectively[110] - Total revenue for 2023 was $10,978 million, an increase of 9% compared to $9,569 million in 2022[112] - Company restaurant revenue reached $10,391 million in 2023, up from $9,110 million in 2022, reflecting a growth of 14%[112] Profitability - Operating profit increased by 5% to $1.2 billion, with core operating profit up by 12%[6] - Net profit for 2024 was $911 million, up 10% from $827 million in 2023[28] - The company reported a net income of $150 million, a 12% increase compared to the last quarter[34] - Net profit for 2023 was $911 million, compared to $827 million in 2022, representing a year-over-year increase of 10%[116] - Basic earnings per diluted share grew by 18% to $2.33, a new annual high, or 22% excluding foreign currency effects[6] - Basic earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was $2.34, up from $1.99 in 2022, indicating a growth of 18%[116] Store Expansion - System sales increased by 5% year-over-year, driven by a 7% contribution from net new stores, with same-store sales reaching 97% of last year's level[6] - Total store count increased by 12%, with a net addition of 1,751 stores, of which 512 were franchised, accounting for approximately 29% of net new stores[6] - As of December 31, 2024, Yum China operates 11,648 KFC stores in China, holding controlling interests of 58% to 92% in various regions[38] - As of December 31, 2024, there are 3,724 Pizza Hut restaurants in China, marking significant growth since its first opening in 1990[39] Digital and Delivery Growth - Delivery sales rose by 14%, maintaining a decade-long trend of double-digit annual growth, representing 39% of KFC and Pizza Hut restaurant revenue[6] - Digital order revenue reached $9.6 billion, accounting for approximately 90% of restaurant revenue[6] - KFC and Pizza Hut membership exceeded 525 million, an 11% increase year-over-year, with member sales accounting for 65% of total system sales[6] Shareholder Returns - Yum China plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2024, including $248 million in cash dividends and $1.24 billion in stock buybacks, equivalent to about 8% of shares outstanding as of December 31, 2023[6] - Total cash dividends paid to shareholders in 2024, 2023, and 2022 were $248 million, $216 million, and $202 million respectively[171] Tax and Audit Matters - The company is currently undergoing a transfer pricing audit by the State Taxation Administration of China, with a likelihood of over 50% that the tax status will be maintained[15] - The audit focuses on related party transactions from 2006 to 2015, assessing the effectiveness of internal controls related to uncertain tax positions[15] - The company has engaged tax professionals to assist in interpreting applicable tax laws and regulations, which is crucial given the complexity of tax laws[15] - The company is responsible for preparing consolidated financial statements that are free from material misstatement due to fraud or error, as per US GAAP and Hong Kong Companies Ordinance[18] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased from $12,031 million in 2023 to $11,121 million in 2024, a decline of approximately 7.6%[33] - Total liabilities decreased from $4,912 million in 2023 to $4,694 million in 2024, a reduction of about 4.4%[33] - Shareholders' equity decreased from $7,106 million in 2023 to $6,414 million in 2024, a decline of approximately 9.7%[33] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures for 2024 totaled $705 million, slightly down from $710 million in 2023[32] - Capital expenditures for 2024 were $383 million for KFC and $111 million for Pizza Hut, showing an increase from $358 million and $113 million respectively in 2023[196] Impairment and Asset Management - The company recorded impairment charges of $18 million for restaurant-level assets as of December 31, 2024, reflecting a fair value of $51 million for those assets[145] - The company conducts impairment testing for each restaurant as an independent cash-generating unit, reviewing long-term assets every six months or when indicators suggest recoverability issues[61] Market Strategy and Future Outlook - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and investing in new product development to drive future growth[28] - Market expansion plans include entering three new international markets by Q3 2024[34] - The company is considering strategic acquisitions to enhance its product portfolio, with a budget of $100 million allocated for this purpose[34] Membership and Loyalty Programs - The paid membership program offers various benefits, including free delivery and product discounts, with income recognized proportionally over the membership period[52] - The membership program allows registered members to earn points redeemable for discounts or free products, with estimated point values reducing revenue and recognized as deferred income[57] Financial Instruments and Fair Value - The fair value of financial instruments is determined based on market quotes or discounted cash flow models, incorporating various risk factors[71][74] - The company measures financial instruments at fair value and recognizes changes in fair value in the consolidated income statement[91] Retirement and Employee Benefits - The company provides retirement benefits through a defined contribution plan, with contributions ranging from 5% to 10% of base salary, and participants receive a lump sum upon leaving based on a percentage of the company's contributions[148] - The company has reserved 45 million shares for its long-term incentive plan initiated on October 31, 2016, with stock options and stock appreciation rights having an exercise price equal to or above the market fair value on the grant date[150]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, which serves as a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and a net profit of $115 million, up 18% year-on-year. The core operating profit was $150 million, reflecting a 35% increase, driven by a decrease in personnel costs, property rents, and other operating costs [4]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of $11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and $13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2% [6]. - The projected net profit for the same years is $976 million, $1.056 billion, and $1.139 billion, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.2%, and 7.8% [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.58, $2.87, and $3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Operational Performance - KFC and Pizza Hut's restaurant operating profit margins for Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - The same-store sales decline for KFC was 1% in Q4 2024, with transaction volume increasing by 3% and average ticket size decreasing by 4%. For Pizza Hut, the same-store sales decline was 2%, with transaction volume up 9% and average ticket size down 10% [4]. Shareholder Returns - The company returned $248 million to shareholders in Q4 2024, with a total of $1.5 billion for the year. The quarterly dividend increased by 50% to $0.24 per share, which will continue into 2025 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales decline has narrowed, and store costs continue to optimize. The core operating profit for Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with guidance for 2025 indicating that the core operating profit margin will remain at least flat or show positive year-on-year growth. The company maintains a robust shareholder return budget, providing a safety net for dividends [4]. - The company plans to open 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a total of 16,395 stores by the end of 2024, including 11,648 KFC and 3,724 Pizza Hut locations [5][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of $2.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $115 million, up 18% year-on-year, and core operating profit was $150 million, up 35% year-on-year [4]. - The company expects revenues of $11.84 billion, $12.71 billion, and $13.63 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 4.7%, 7.4%, and 7.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $976 million, $1.06 billion, and $1.14 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 7.1%, 8.2%, and 7.8% [6][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $2.58, $2.87, and $3.18 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Shareholder Returns - The company has maintained strong dividend and buyback efforts, with a total shareholder return of $1.5 billion for the year and a 50% increase in quarterly dividends to $0.24 per share for Q4 2024, which will continue into 2025 [4]. - The total shareholder return plan for 2025 and 2026 remains at $3 billion, representing 8.3% of the market capitalization of HKD 1,404 billion [4]. Store Performance - The operating profit margins for KFC and Pizza Hut in Q4 2024 were 13.3% and 9.3%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 1.3 and 2.0 percentage points [4]. - Same-store sales for KFC declined by 1% in Q4 2024, while Pizza Hut's same-store sales declined by 2%. However, transaction volumes increased by 3% and 9% for KFC and Pizza Hut, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [9] Core Insights - Yum China is the largest restaurant company in China, with over 14,000 stores, significantly influencing the standardization of chain dining in the country over the past 30 years. The company has a highly professional organizational management and a relatively market-oriented ownership structure, with the parent company YUM granting substantial local authority [2][5] - The main brand supporting the company's performance is KFC, which has entered a mature development phase and is expanding its scale boundaries while maintaining a rapid store opening speed. Other brands like Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Lavazza are also in the process of iterative exploration [2][5] - The company's three core competitive advantages—digitalization, middle and back office efficiency, and localization—currently dominate the industry, ensuring stable performance for mature brands [7] Industry Analysis - The restaurant industry in China is a vast market with an annual revenue of approximately 5 trillion yuan, characterized by a highly fragmented structure. The top 100 restaurant companies account for only 7.7% of the total revenue. The industry maintained an annual growth rate of about 10% from 2015 to 2019, and as of 2023, monthly cumulative revenue has recovered to the levels of the same period in 2019 [14][23] - The fast food market, where KFC operates, is estimated to be around 1 trillion yuan, while the casual dining market is about 500 billion yuan. KFC holds a leading position in the fast food sector, with a market share of approximately 4.9% [17][21] - The competitive landscape is highly dispersed, with a low chain rate of less than 20% in Chinese dining compared to overseas markets. The CR5 (concentration ratio of the top five brands) in 2019 was about 3.1%, with Yum China holding around 1.4% [14][15] Financial Perspective - The company is expected to generate over 10 billion USD in revenue in 2024, with more than 90% coming from directly operated restaurants. The revenue growth rates for KFC from 2021 to 2024 are projected to be 20.31%, 3.08%, 14.14%, and 3.26% respectively [6] - The company's cost control is considered a benchmark in the industry, with strong supply chain capabilities ensuring stable core costs. It is anticipated that in normal years, the company can achieve a net profit margin of nearly 10% [6] Core Competitiveness - The company's digitalization efforts have established a strong brand presence with 400 million members, and ongoing investments in digital capabilities are expected to yield advantages in future algorithms [7] - The middle and back office operations are characterized by a smart, efficient, and agile supply chain that supports food safety, cost stabilization, and product innovation [7] - The localization strategy and brand strength have been embedded since the early management stages, allowing the company to maintain a competitive edge over its peers [7] Relative Valuation - The company's valuation has fluctuated significantly since its listing, initially receiving a 30X valuation in 2020, which increased to 50X in 2022 due to expectations of performance recovery. By 2023, the valuation returned to normal levels, reflecting a more stable growth outlook [8]