热门中概股小马智行初步收涨20.2%，文远知行涨18.1%，网易涨3.6%，B站涨2.5%，新东方和百胜中国 涨超1%，小米ADR大致持平，腾讯ADR和阿里则跌超0.7%，理想和京东跌超2%，小鹏跌约3%，蔚来 跌约4%，拼多多跌13.9%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数初步收跌0.2%。 ...

热门中概股B站初步收涨2.9%，理想、腾讯、网易、百胜中国至多涨0.7%，拼多多、阿里巴巴、新东方 至多跌0.9%，小米和蔚来跌超1.4%，小鹏跌2.5%，文远知行跌9.5%，小马智行跌17.1%。 纳斯达克金龙中国指数初步大致收平，本周累计下跌约2.6%。 ...

机构：长江证券 研究员：赵刚/杨会强/马健轩 事件描述 2025 年一季度，公司总收入30 亿美元，同比增长1%（不计外币换算影响为2%）；经调整净利润2.92 亿美元，同比增长2%（不计外币换算影响为3%）。 事件评论 门店方面，主品牌稳健增长，肯悦咖啡与必胜客WOW 门店值得期待。2025 年一季度公司净新增门店 247 家，其中加盟店占比25%。分品牌看，肯德基净新增门店295 家，加盟店占比41%，必胜客净新增 门店45 家，加盟店占比33%，其他品牌门店数量净减少93 家。截至一季度末，门店总数达16642 家， 其中肯德基门店11943 家，必胜客门店3769 家。除两个主品牌外，一季度肯悦咖啡已达到1000 家的里 程碑，未来有望继续依托肯德基的店面空间、资源以及会员体系扩张；必胜客WOW 门店也在低线城市 成功开设，资本支出可低至必胜客标准店的一半，未来增长可期。 量价拆分，肯德基同店交易量同比增长4%，客单价同比下降4%，客单价下沉主要系公司拓宽价格区间 扩大目标市场；必胜客同店交易量同比增长17%，客单价同比下降14%，客单价下沉主要系公司提供更 具性价比的产品，二者同店交易量均连续第九个 ...

证券研究报告：社会服务 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-19 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-05 2024-08 2024-10 2024-12 2025-03 百胜中国 恒生指数 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（港币） | 348.00 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）3.73 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港 | 1,299.10 | | 币） | | | 52 周内最高/最低价（港 | 419.2 / 324.0 | | 币） | | | 资产负债率(%) | 42.2084 | | 市盈率 | 18.2327 | | 第一大股东 | JP Morgan Chase & Co. | 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 百胜中国 (9987.HK) 同店持续改善，加盟继续推进，业绩韧性十足 ⚫ 事件 公司发布 25Q1 财务业绩公告，25Q1 公司实现营收 29.81 亿美元， 同比 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨百胜中国（9987.HK） [Table_Title] 2025 年第一季度财务业绩报告点评：门店稳健 增长，主品牌盈利能力提升 报告要点 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517020001 SAC：S0490520080013 SFC：BUX176 赵刚 杨会强 马健轩 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary] 2025 年一季度，公司总收入 30 亿美元，同比增长 1%（不计外币换算影响为 2%）；经调整净 利润 2.92 亿美元，同比增长 2%（不计外币换算影响为 3%）。公司数字化、中后台、本土化和 品牌力等三大核心竞争力当前处于行业支配性地位，保证了成熟期品牌的业绩稳定性，2025 年 公司预计净新增 1600 至 1800 家门店，保持了较高开店速度，门店数量增长有望带动公司业 绩持续上升。预计公司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 9.89/10.6/11.27 亿美元，对应当前股 价 PE 分别为 17/16/15X，维持"买入"评级。 百胜中国（9987.HK） cjzqd ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has included Yum China Holdings Inc. (YUMC.N) in its Top Pick list, indicating a positive outlook for the company [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance and Targets - The company reiterated its target for a 4%-6% year-over-year growth in system sales by 2025 [2]. - The net new store target for 2025 remains at 1,600-1,800, with an acceleration in store expansion expected in the second half of the year [3]. - Same-store sales growth (SSSG) is expected to fluctuate quarterly, with a focus on increasing customer traffic, while average transaction value (TA) is under pressure [3]. Group 2: Recent Developments - Overall sales momentum during April and the Labor Day holiday met company expectations [4]. - The impact of aggressive promotions from delivery platforms on the delivery business is considered limited, with a focus on retaining core customers through its own super app [4]. - KFC reported a 4% decline in average transaction value in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of lower-value delivery orders and an increase in KCOFFEE and breakfast orders [4]. - Pizza Hut (PH) will continue to focus on low-price strategies to attract demand, with long-term improvements expected in restaurant profit margins [4]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Position - The valuation method suggests a target EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x for 2025, based on a 30% premium relative to the average EV/EBITDA of the Chinese consumer sector since Yum China's IPO in 2016 [5]. - Current expected EV/EBITDA for the consumer sector in 2025 is 8.5x, which is deemed reasonable due to the company's superior performance in cost savings and efficiency [5]. - The company has a market capitalization of approximately $16.54 billion, with a price target set at $57.00 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China (9987.HK) [1] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $2.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1% (or 2% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Adjusted net profit reached $292 million, up 2% year-on-year (or 3% excluding foreign currency translation effects) [6] - Core operating profit margin improved to 13.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Same-store sales remained flat year-on-year, with a continued increase in transaction volume but a decrease in average ticket price [6] - The company opened a net of 247 new stores in Q1 2025, with a total of 16,642 restaurants at the end of the quarter [7] - The restaurant profit margin improved to 18.6%, up 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from lower food and packaging costs [8] Revenue Performance - Revenue for 2025 is projected to grow at a rate of 4.6% to $11.821 billion, with net profit expected to reach $957 million [12] - The company plans to add 1,600 to 1,800 new stores in 2025, with a target of over 20,000 stores by 2026 [7] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts EPS of $2.56, $2.77, and $2.96 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17x, 16x, and 15x for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yum China [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, same-store sales remained flat year-on-year, which is an improvement compared to the declining trend in the previous four quarters. This performance aligns with market expectations [4] - The restaurant profit margin expanded by 100 basis points year-on-year, and the operating profit margin increased by 80 basis points, slightly exceeding market expectations and management's guidance for the year [4] - The management attributes the company's ability to achieve stable performance in a complex consumer environment to strong management capabilities and flexible market responsiveness, allowing for quick operational adjustments [4] - The management has maintained its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting a low single-digit year-on-year growth in system-wide revenue and stable or slightly improved core operating profit margin [4] Financial Summary - For 2025, the projected revenue is 11,720 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [9] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 924 million RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [9] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for Hong Kong shares is projected at 18.9x for 2025, while for US shares, it is 19.1x [9] - The expected return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 17.0% [9] Brand Performance - KFC's restaurant profit margin remained stable year-on-year, while Pizza Hut's restaurant profit margin showed slight improvement [4] - Pizza Hut's average ticket price decreased by 14% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but same-store traffic increased significantly by 17%, marking the fastest growth since Q3 2023 [4] - Kcoffee, which reached 1,000 stores by the end of Q1 2025, continues to grow strongly, with sales and cup volume increasing by 20% year-on-year [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5][13]. Core Insights - The company's Q1 performance met expectations with revenue of $2.981 billion, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year, and a core operating profit of $405 million, which adjusted for currency effects, rose by 8% [2][5]. - Profitability continues to improve, with the overall restaurant profit margin at 18.6%, up by 1.0 percentage points, driven by higher gross margins and a decrease in the proportion of rental and operational costs [3]. - The company is expanding its new store formats, with KFC's same-store sales decline narrowing and a significant increase in order volume, while Pizza Hut is seeing a notable rise in single-store sales [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 system sales for KFC increased by 3%, with same-store sales growth stabilizing and a 4% increase in order volume. The restaurant profit margin for KFC was 19.8%, benefiting from lower raw material costs and operational efficiencies [3]. - Pizza Hut's system sales also rose by 3%, with a 17% increase in order volume, although average transaction value decreased. The restaurant profit margin improved to 14.4% [4]. - The company forecasts a steady improvement in same-store sales growth driven by new product marketing and operational efficiency, with projected net profits of $940 million, $1.001 billion, and $1.051 billion for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [5][10]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects a PE ratio of 17.2, 16.2, and 15.4 for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, indicating a strong valuation outlook [5][10]. - The company is expected to return a total of $3 billion to shareholders over 2025E and 2026E, highlighting its strong dividend attributes [5].