黑电行业系列深度报告（二）估值篇：彩电三大周期论：长看技术迭代、中看竞争格局、短看面板波动

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The display technology iteration is disrupting the TV industry landscape, typically on a long cycle of several decades [12] - The current display technology upgrade is focused on Mini LED and OLED, with Mini LED leading in cost reduction and market penetration [19][30] - The profitability of black electrical companies is closely related to panel pricing and competitive landscape, with a shift towards a more stable pricing environment expected [2][4] Summary by Sections Display Technology Iteration - The TV industry has undergone two major technological iterations, with cost reduction being the primary driver for new technology adoption [12] - The current upgrade involves Mini LED and OLED technologies, with Mini LED showing a significant advantage in cost and market acceptance [19][30] - The initial investment costs for display technology upgrades are high, and incorrect technological paths can lead to significant financial burdens for companies [36] Black Electrical Stock Valuation and Profitability - Black electrical stocks are more suitable for PB valuation, with profitability levels influenced by panel pricing and competitive dynamics [2] - The supply-demand cycle for panels is expected to weaken, reducing its impact on long-term pricing [2] - Domestic price competition is easing, and the market share of Chinese brands is increasing, particularly in overseas markets [3][5] Short-term Changes in Black Electrical Stocks - Governance improvements in companies like Hisense and TCL are expected to boost market confidence and valuations [4] - Panel prices are anticipated to stabilize, enhancing the predictability of gross margins for TV manufacturers [4] - The correlation between panel supply-demand dynamics and gross margins is significant, with potential for improved profitability as the market stabilizes [4]