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医药行业海外MNC动态跟踪系列(二):礼来:替尔泊肽增长强劲,糖尿病业务增长稳健
Ping An Securities·2025-02-11 02:36

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - Eli Lilly reported a revenue of $45.043 billion for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 32%, with a net profit of $10.590 billion, up 102% [2][10] - The cardiovascular metabolic segment is the core business for Eli Lilly, generating $29.521 billion in revenue, accounting for 66% of total revenue, primarily driven by the strong sales of Tirzepatide [2][10] - The diabetes market is large and steadily growing, with significant contributions from GLP-1 products [32] Summary by Sections Part 1: 2024 Financial Overview and Key Events - Eli Lilly's total revenue for 2024 was $45.043 billion, with a gross margin of 81.3% and an operating income of $12.899 billion, reflecting a 104% increase year-on-year [7][10] - Key events included the approval of new drugs and significant clinical trial advancements [11][13] Part 2: Core Product Sales Analysis - Tirzepatide sales reached $11.540 billion for the diabetes version (Mounjaro) and $4.926 billion for the weight loss version (Zepbound), together contributing $16.466 billion, which is 37% of Eli Lilly's total revenue [15] - The sales of Dulaglutide decreased by 26% to $5.254 billion due to competition from Tirzepatide [18] - Empagliflozin sales increased by 23% to $3.341 billion, benefiting from its coverage of diabetes and related conditions [21] Part 3: 2025 Pipeline Milestones - Clinical advancements include the initiation of Phase III trials for Orforglipron and Olomorasib, with several data readouts expected in 2025 [26] - Eli Lilly anticipates submitting applications for multiple products, including Tirzepatide for heart failure and Orforglipron for obesity [26] Part 4: 2025 Outlook - Eli Lilly projects a revenue growth of 41.5%-43.5% for 2025, estimating total revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion [29][30] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be between $22.50 and $24.00 [29]