食品饮料行业周报：春节旺季消费边际改善，白酒动销符合预期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector amidst improving consumer demand during the Spring Festival season [5][26]. Core Insights - The overall sales performance of the liquor sector during the Spring Festival was in line with market expectations, showing a slight improvement compared to the previous Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, but a decline compared to last year's Spring Festival [5][26]. - The demand for consumer goods, particularly snack gift boxes, has seen significant growth, with offline sales channels recovering, exemplified by a more than 25% year-on-year increase in sales at Sam's Club during the New Year season [5][26]. - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector is likely to experience a recovery due to favorable policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [5][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - High-end liquor consumption primarily occurs in business gifting scenarios, with notable sales increases for Feitian Moutai and the eighth generation of Wuliangye before the Spring Festival. However, the mid-range liquor segment remains weak due to its reliance on business occasions [5][26]. - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with potential for recovery as consumer spending improves. The industry is at historically low valuation levels, presenting medium to long-term investment opportunities [5][26]. Consumer Goods - The nut snack sector is experiencing robust growth, with the market size expected to exceed 300 billion yuan in 2024, and projected to grow by 10-15% in 2025, surpassing 3500 billion yuan [5][27]. - The dairy sector is anticipated to see marginal improvements as excess production capacity is gradually eliminated, with fresh milk prices currently at 3.12 yuan per kilogram, down 14% year-on-year [5][27]. - The beer industry is expected to stabilize, with companies like Chongqing Beer reporting a slight decline in revenue but maintaining a stable competitive landscape [5][27]. Restaurant Supply Chain - The report highlights a 4.1% year-on-year increase in sales for key retail and restaurant enterprises during the Spring Festival, indicating a stable start to the consumer market [5][29]. - The recovery of the downstream restaurant industry is expected to benefit the seasoning and frozen food sectors, with recommendations to focus on companies like Haitian Flavoring and Tianwei Food [5][29].