肾科行业报告：稳定趋势下的治疗率提升、国产替代与全产业链布局

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the renal industry, highlighting growth opportunities in dialysis treatment and domestic product substitution [1]. Core Insights - The dialysis treatment rate in China is expected to continue rising, with significant room for improvement compared to developed countries. As of 2023, China's dialysis treatment rate is approximately 26%, compared to 58% in the United States [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of a full industry chain layout, suggesting that providing comprehensive solutions for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients is crucial for future development [3][51]. Summary by Sections Dialysis Treatment Trends - Blood purification remains the primary treatment for ESRD, with blood dialysis being the most widely used method. The report notes that the number of ESRD patients in China reached 3.85 million in 2022, accounting for about 37% of the global total [7][8]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6% for ESRD patients in China from 2024 to 2030 [7]. Domestic Product Substitution - The report indicates that the domestic market for blood dialysis machines is currently dominated by foreign brands, with a domestic market share of only 19% as of 2021. However, recent policies are expected to create new opportunities for domestic brands [3][35]. - The report highlights that the concentration of consumables in the dialysis market is likely to increase due to centralized procurement policies, which could enhance the market share of leading domestic manufacturers [3][38]. Full Industry Chain Layout - The report discusses the importance of a comprehensive approach to the renal industry, covering the entire patient care cycle from primary kidney diseases to late-stage renal disease. It emphasizes the need for innovative products that address specific challenges faced by ESRD patients [3][51][54]. - Companies like Sanxin Medical are mentioned as examples of domestic firms successfully breaking the import monopoly in certain product categories, showcasing the competitive strength of local products [3][54]. Market Size and Growth - The blood dialysis medical device market in China is projected to grow steadily, with an expected market size of 48.39 billion yuan by 2030. In 2022, the market size for blood dialysis devices reached 5.12 billion yuan [25]. - The peritoneal dialysis market is smaller but also shows growth potential, with a market size of 4.44 billion yuan in 2022, expected to reach 12.7 billion yuan by 2030 [28]. Policy and Reimbursement - The report notes that the improvement of medical insurance reimbursement policies for ESRD treatments is likely to enhance patient treatment rates. The reimbursement rate for blood dialysis is approximately 70-90% in most regions [29][32].