美团-W：美团点评报告：外卖稳健，到店优化，闪购高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" [8] Core Views - Meituan is a leader in local lifestyle services, with stable growth in food delivery, optimized in-store competition, and significant growth in flash purchase services [1] - The report anticipates that advertising revenue will enhance user experience (UE) optimization, driving profitability in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The competition with Douyin in the in-store business is expected to stabilize, with Meituan maintaining a strong user base and merchant resources [5][6] - Flash purchase services are projected to accelerate penetration into lower-tier markets, with significant growth in order volume [7][12] Summary by Sections 1. Delivery Business - Healthy growth in food delivery orders is driven by high penetration and favorable weather conditions, with expectations for advertising revenue to enhance UE [2] - The potential for increased profitability in food delivery lies in improving the advertising monetization rate [3] - There remains room for growth in order volume through repeat purchases and promotional strategies targeting both high and low-tier cities [3][4] 2. In-store Business - The in-store travel and dining segment has ample growth potential, with a competitive landscape that allows for differentiated strategies [5] - Meituan's user mindset and merchant resource base are solid, maintaining a competitive edge against Douyin [6] 3. Flash Purchase Business - The flash purchase segment is expanding rapidly, with a focus on potential categories and deeper market penetration [7][12] - The model of "flash warehouses" is particularly suited for lower-tier markets, enhancing order volume significantly [12] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 337.01 billion, CNY 390.99 billion, and CNY 449.64 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.78%, 16.02%, and 15.00% [15][20] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach CNY 431.71 billion, CNY 540.59 billion, and CNY 715.64 billion for the same years, reflecting substantial growth [15][20] 5. Valuation and Target Price - The target market capitalization for Meituan is set at CNY 1,081.2 billion, with an expected upside of approximately 17% based on a 20X NON-IFRS PE valuation for 2025 [16]