海南橡胶：全球天然橡胶产业龙头，有望受益行业景气上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Hainan Rubber [5] Core Views - Hainan Rubber is a global leader in the natural rubber industry, expected to benefit from an upward trend in the industry [1] - The company has a strong market position with significant influence and competitiveness in the global natural rubber market, covering major tire manufacturers [1][13] - The long-term supply-demand imbalance is expected to support a gradual increase in natural rubber prices [1][47] - The company is actively optimizing management and technology to enhance profitability as the rubber market improves [2] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hainan Rubber focuses on the cultivation, processing, and trading of natural rubber, managing nearly 4 million acres of rubber plantations globally, with an annual production exceeding 100,000 tons [13] - The company has a significant trading volume of 3.8 million tons of rubber, accounting for approximately 25% of global consumption [1][13] Industry Outlook - The natural rubber industry is expected to experience a long-term upward trend, with supply constraints and stable demand driving price increases [1][47] - Short-term supply issues due to weather disturbances are anticipated, but the overall market is expected to remain strong [38][44] Profitability and Financials - The company’s profitability is primarily driven by its own rubber production, with a potential for cost reduction through management optimization and technology advancements [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 12 billion, 20 billion, and 44 billion yuan respectively, with significant year-on-year growth rates [3][4] - The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is between 6.1 and 6.3 yuan, indicating a premium over the current stock price [3][5] Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency through better management practices, resulting in reduced sales and management expense ratios [34] - Inventory turnover and accounts receivable turnover have shown positive trends, indicating enhanced operational performance [34] Strategic Initiatives - Hainan Rubber is expanding its business model by exploring underutilized land for non-rubber crops and enhancing its economic model [2][21] - The acquisition of HAC has significantly increased the company's processing capacity and strengthened its international market presence [20][21]