Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy and consumption stimulus measures on domestic demand recovery in 2025, with a projected retail sales growth of 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, reaching a total of 48.79 trillion yuan [3][14] - The textile and apparel export sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in orders and a favorable environment due to the U.S. interest rate cuts, with a total export value of 301.1 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [3][14] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Review - In 2024, the A-share home appliance index rose by 25.44%, while the textile and apparel index fell by 5.32% [7][10] Section 2: Textile and Apparel - Domestic retail growth is under pressure, with the retail sales of clothing and textiles growing only 0.3% year-on-year, lagging behind overall retail growth [14] - The textile manufacturing sector showed stable growth in 2024, with an industrial value-added growth of 4.4% and a profit increase of 7.5% [15][20] Section 3: Light Industry - The light industry is expected to see demand recovery driven by real estate stabilization and consumption stimulus policies, with furniture retail sales increasing by 3.6% year-on-year in 2024 [25][29] Section 4: Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is projected to benefit from national subsidies and brand expansion overseas, with retail sales expected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in 2024 [36][32] Section 5: Social Services - The tourism and hospitality sectors are anticipated to recover as domestic demand is stimulated, with a focus on travel and leisure activities [5][21]
2025年度可选消费投资策略：消费新时代，拥抱大科技
Shanghai Securities·2025-02-12 00:53