摩根大通：台湾 ODM 厂商英伟达 Blackwell GPU 模块供应状况改善，RTX50 系列产品提价

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Taiwan ODMs, particularly in the context of upcoming product launches and improving supply conditions for GPUs and servers [2][4]. Core Insights - Taiwan ODMs/OEMs experienced a decline in PC system/component revenues in January due to fewer working days and subdued demand, but server sales remained resilient [2][4]. - The 1Q25 notebook ODM build is projected to decline by approximately 11% QoQ, which is better than the seasonal expectation of a 13% decline, suggesting a stronger shipment uptick in February/March [2][4]. - Positive feedback on RTX50 sales and ongoing GPU supply constraints have led to retail price increases, indicating potential ASP and margin improvements for VGA vendors [2][4]. - The gaming PC cycle is expected to drive revenue growth for ASUSTek and Lenovo in the near term, while companies like Quanta, Wiwynn, and Hon Hai are anticipated to benefit from production improvements [2][4]. Summary by Sections PCs - January notebook ODM shipments fell by 25% MoM due to fewer working days and early order pull-ins, but the 1Q25 outlook indicates a better-than-expected decline of ~11% QoQ [4][5]. - PC brands reported weaker-than-expected revenues due to end demand weakness and stringent inventory controls ahead of new product launches [4][5]. General/ASIC Servers - ASPEED and Wiwynn reported only minor MoM revenue declines in January, indicating strong traditional server and ASIC demand [4][5]. - AI server demand is expected to drive general server replacement demand, enhancing revenue momentum in 1H25 [4][5]. GPU and VGA - Blackwell GPU chip output is improving, with expectations for significant production increases in 2Q25 [7]. - VGA price hikes are anticipated due to strong demand, with ASUSTek and MSI raising prices for RTX50 series products, which could enhance margins for VGA vendors [7][8]. iPhone EMS - iPhone revenues are expected to decline sequentially due to seasonal factors, with the iPhone 16 weakness offsetting the iPhone SE upside [2][4].