金属行业周报：静待节后需求复苏，1月我国黄金储备增长

Investment Ratings - Steel industry: Neutral [1] - Non-ferrous metals industry: Positive [1] Core Views - The steel production is expected to rebound after the Spring Festival, but short-term demand remains weak due to adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic disturbances, leading to a potential decline in steel prices [1][16] - Copper supply is tight, which supports copper prices; however, short-term demand may be weak due to the time required for downstream manufacturers to resume normal production [1][37] - Aluminum prices are expected to be under pressure due to ongoing declines in alumina prices and external factors such as EU sanctions and US tariffs affecting aluminum exports [1][42] - Gold prices are rising due to safe-haven demand and central bank purchases, with long-term bullish factors including high US debt and inflation risks [1][71] - The tin industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the semiconductor sector and demand driven by AI and new energy developments [1][71] Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel inventory continues to accumulate as downstream production has not fully resumed; production is expected to increase post-holiday, but demand is still weak [16][26] - As of February 7, steel production was 8.0863 million tons, down 0.36% from January 24, and inventory reached 5.2374 million tons, up 38.72% from January 24 [18][26] - The average profit margins for hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel are negative, indicating pressure on profitability [36] Copper Industry - The copper smelting fee is negative, indicating tight supply conditions; LME copper prices increased by 0.76% to $9,300 per ton as of February 7 [38][41] - The copper inventory at LME decreased by 3.88$2,600 per ton [42][44] - The domestic aluminum production capacity is expected to gradually increase post-holiday [42] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 3.91% to $2,886.10 per ounce, driven by safe-haven demand and central bank purchases [47] - Silver prices also rose, reflecting similar trends in the precious metals market [47] Lithium and New Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply pressures from the resumption of domestic lithium salt production [49] - As of February 7, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices were 77,500 yuan per ton, down 0.64% from January 24 [50] Rare Earth and Minor Metals - Light rare earth prices increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 425,000 yuan per ton, up 2.41% [59] - Tungsten and other minor metal prices remained stable [61]