Luckin Coffee(LKNCY) 浦银国际证券·2025-02-12 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luckin Coffee (LKNCY.US) with a target price of 29.2 [4][18]. Core Insights - The recent volatility in Luckin Coffee's stock price is attributed to a significant increase in coffee bean prices over the past month, raising concerns about profit margins. However, the report suggests that the short-term impact on Luckin's performance is limited, and the long-term outlook remains positive for market share expansion and profit margin improvement [1][2]. - Despite a nearly 30% increase in stock price over the past two months, the current valuation at 17.6x 2025 P/E is still considered attractive, with substantial room for growth [1][4]. - Luckin Coffee's high inventory levels and a significant order with Brazil worth RMB 10 billion for 240,000 tons of coffee beans from 2025 to 2029 are expected to mitigate the impact of rising coffee bean prices [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 13.293 billion in 2022 to RMB 50.520 billion in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.9% in 2022 and 87.3% in 2023 [11][13]. - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 488 million in 2022 to RMB 4.268 billion in 2026, with a notable growth of 483.3% in 2023 [11][13]. - The report anticipates a steady improvement in profit margins, with the return on equity (ROE) projected to remain strong at around 25.6% in 2025 [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that rising coffee bean prices may lead to a consolidation in the Chinese coffee market, benefiting larger players like Luckin Coffee due to their stronger supply chain and purchasing power [2][3]. - Luckin Coffee's innovative product offerings and marketing strategies are expected to enhance brand loyalty and capture consumer mindshare, opening up long-term growth opportunities [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive environment in the coffee industry is described as intense, but the report suggests that rising coffee bean prices could lead to reduced promotional activities among major players, allowing them to maintain profitability through price increases [2][3]. - Luckin Coffee's ability to adapt its product mix, as demonstrated by the successful launch of its light milk tea product, positions it well to withstand cost pressures [2][3].