ANKAI(SZ:000868) Xinda Securities·2025-02-12 14:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ankai Bus (000868.SZ) is "Buy" based on the report's analysis [1]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in sales for January, with total sales reaching 561 units, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%. Notably, large bus sales surged by 109.3% to 224 units [3]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2024, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 8 million to 12 million yuan, driven by increased demand in the passenger transport market and improved operational management [3]. - The report is optimistic about the "old-for-new" policy, which is anticipated to boost domestic sales, particularly in the electric bus segment, as the government increases subsidies for replacing older vehicles [3]. Summary by Sections Sales and Production Data - In January, Ankai Bus achieved a production volume of 561 units, reflecting a 1.3% increase year-on-year. Large bus production reached 268 units, up 160.2% [3]. - The sales breakdown includes: - Large buses: 224 units (+109.3%) - Medium buses: 137 units (-25.5%) - Light buses: 200 units (+112.8%) [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 9 million yuan in 2024, with projections of 42 million yuan in 2025 and 63 million yuan in 2026, indicating a strong recovery trajectory [4]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 2,387 million yuan in 2024 to 3,142 million yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.4% [4]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the positive impact of the "old-for-new" policy, which aims to accelerate the replacement of older electric buses, thereby stimulating domestic demand [3]. - The overall market for buses over 6 meters is projected to grow by 33.4% in 2024, with Ankai Bus expected to outperform this growth with a 34.9% increase in sales [3].