Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the significant impact of US sanctions on Russian oil exports, which have led to a notable decrease in export volumes and a tightening of shipping capacity [2][3] - Following the sanctions, Russian oil exports dropped from 5.14 million barrels per day on January 27, 2025, to 2.91 million barrels per day on February 3, 2025, representing a 43% week-on-week decline and a 36% decrease compared to the average in the second half of 2024 [3] - The sanctions have resulted in nearly half of the sanctioned fleet anchoring outside ports, leading to increased scrapping of older vessels and a tightening of compliant shipping capacity [3] - The report suggests that the positive fundamentals in oil shipping are expected to continue, with an emphasis on the rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East [3] Summary by Sections Sanctions Impact - On January 10, 2025, the US imposed the most stringent sanctions on Russian oil exports, affecting 184 vessels and numerous companies, including 32 Chinese entities [3] - The sanctions provide a transition period for affected vessels to unload cargo by February 27, 2025, and for financial institutions involved in energy transactions to complete trades by March 12, 2025 [3] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the number of older vessels being scrapped has increased, with 8 oil tankers dismantled between December 2024 and January 2025, marking the largest scrapping activity since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - As of February 6, 2025, 16 older vessels (14 years and older) were traded, indicating a higher transaction volume compared to December 2024 [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, as the shipping sector's positive outlook is expected to benefit the upstream shipbuilding industry [3]
航运船舶市场系列（六）：美国对俄制裁效果初现，老船交易收紧运力供给
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-02-12 14:14