ANKAI(000868) 信达证券·2025-02-13 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ankai Bus (000868.SZ) is "Buy" based on the positive sales growth and expected profitability turnaround [1]. Core Views - Ankai Bus reported a significant increase in sales for January, achieving a total of 561 units sold, which represents a year-on-year growth of 45.7%. Notably, large bus sales surged by 109.3% [3]. - The company is expected to turn a profit in 2024, with projected net profit ranging from 8 million to 12 million yuan, driven by increased demand in the passenger transport market and improved operational management [3]. - The "old-for-new" policy is anticipated to boost domestic sales, as the government has announced increased subsidies for replacing older buses, which is expected to stimulate demand [3]. Sales and Production Data - In January, Ankai Bus produced 561 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Large bus production reached 268 units, up 160.2% year-on-year [3]. - The company expects to sell 5,837 buses in 2024, which is a 34.9% increase compared to the previous year, outperforming the industry growth rate of 33.4% [3]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections indicate a growth trajectory with total revenue expected to reach 2,387 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 3,142 million yuan by 2026 [4]. - The net profit forecast shows a recovery from losses, with expected profits of 9 million yuan in 2024, 42 million yuan in 2025, and 63 million yuan in 2026 [4]. Policy Impact - The new "old-for-new" policy, effective from January 8, 2025, aims to enhance the electrification of urban buses and increase subsidies for replacing older vehicles, which is expected to further stimulate domestic demand for Ankai's products [3].