Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The long-term trend of gold pricing has shifted to being influenced by the RMB exchange rate, with current Shanghai gold serving as a good tool for hedging against exchange rate expectations [2][5] - The relationship between CPI and Shanghai gold premium is expected to reconnect once the level of early mortgage repayment returns to low levels, indicating a potential for gold to maintain its cost-effectiveness [2] - The central bank's resumption of gold purchases signals a stabilization of the exchange rate, but the probability of a significant gold market rally is low, with expectations leaning towards market fluctuations [3] - The actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds are identified as the main short-term pricing factor for gold, with recent fluctuations attributed to economic policy uncertainties related to the US elections [4] Summary by Sections Latest Views - The report highlights that the Shanghai gold premium is a reflection of market expectations regarding the exchange rate and is crucial for tracking cross-border capital flows [2] - The high level of swap premiums necessitates cautious judgment regarding future Shanghai gold premiums, suggesting that holding Shanghai gold is a favorable hedging strategy [2] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The resumption of gold purchases by the central bank is interpreted as a move to stabilize the exchange rate amidst a backdrop of diverging currency trends in Asia and the US Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting phase [3] - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend significantly on whether the economic cycles of the US and other major economies move in sync or diverge [3] Recent Currency and Gold Fluctuations - The report notes that the actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds have been a key factor in the short-term fluctuations of gold prices, with notable divergences occurring during significant geopolitical events [4] - The current low level of Shanghai gold premiums suggests a higher certainty in Shanghai gold compared to London gold [4] Underlying Logic of Recent Gold Surge - The report indicates that the monetary attributes of gold are no longer the primary pricing factors, with the central bank's gold purchases and gold ETF inflows being the main driving forces behind the recent gold market dynamics [6]
国君研究|黄金与汇率 · 合集
Guotai Junan Securities·2025-02-13 02:03