基础化工：部分氨纶厂商上调出厂价格，旺季将至有望支撑产品盈利修复

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to see price increases for chemical products as the peak season approaches, with a focus on core chemical assets and the growth of new materials [2] - The supply side shows an industry operating rate of 76.9% as of February 7, 2025, an increase of 3.83 percentage points since the beginning of the year, while factory inventory has decreased by 1,077 tons compared to the beginning of the year [3] - The apparent consumption of spandex in December 2024 was 85,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with an annual total of 1,026,900 tons, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [3] - The price spread for spandex- pure MDI-PTMEG recorded 10,830 RMB/ton as of February 7, 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 115 RMB/ton and a year-to-date increase of 79 RMB/ton [3] - The current supply-demand relationship is expected to gradually improve as the new capacity investment cycle nears its end, benefiting leading companies in the industry [3] Summary by Sections Supply Side - The industry operating rate is 76.9%, up 3.83 percentage points from the start of the year [3] - Factory inventory stands at 154,000 tons, down 1,077 tons from the beginning of the year and down 7,778 tons from the peak in Q3 2024 [3] Demand Side - The spandex market is experiencing steady and rapid growth, with retail sales in the downstream apparel and textile market expected to continue increasing [3] - The demand for spandex is anticipated to rise further during the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [3] Price Dynamics - Some spandex manufacturers have raised factory prices, indicating a potential for slight price recovery in the market [5] - As of February 7, 2025, spandex prices in the East China market have increased by 400 RMB/ton and 500 RMB/ton for 20D and 30D respectively [5] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Huafeng Chemical, Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, and Taihe New Materials [4]