Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 36.53, indicating a potential upside of 91% from the current price [7][16]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic IDC industry and is experiencing rapid growth in its overseas business, particularly in the international data center market [5][6]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue growth of 6.8% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 9.96 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA increase of 8.8% to about RMB 4.62 billion [2][16]. - The international revenue for the third quarter of 2024 saw a remarkable growth of 636.3% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue growth of 13.78% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 46.4%, while the net loss was around RMB 4.29 billion [2][16]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the adjusted EBITDA was approximately RMB 3.79 billion, with a margin of 45.00% [3][16]. - The company’s total service capacity reached 882,200 square meters by the end of Q3 2024, with a commitment rate of 92.7% and a utilization rate of 74.4% [3][16]. Revenue and EBITDA Forecast - Projected revenues for the company from 2024 to 2026 are RMB 11.55 billion, RMB 11.36 billion, and RMB 12.49 billion, respectively, with corresponding EBITDA estimates of RMB 5.03 billion, RMB 4.97 billion, and RMB 5.08 billion [6][16]. - The overseas entity GDSI is expected to generate revenues of RMB 1.23 billion, RMB 4.05 billion, and RMB 7.69 billion from 2024 to 2026, with EBITDA of RMB 333 million, RMB 1.36 billion, and RMB 2.81 billion [6][16]. Valuation - The combined valuation of the company, considering both GDSH and GDSI, is estimated at RMB 51.79 billion (HKD 55.69 billion) [7][16]. - The valuation for GDSH is projected at RMB 36.99 billion, while GDSI is valued at RMB 41.56 billion [7][16].
万国数据-SW：国内IDC龙头企业，海外业务高速成长-20250213