[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/计算机 证券研究报告 万国数据-SW（9698）公司研究报告 2025 年 04 月 02 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 股票数据 | 4[Table_StockInfo 月 1 日收盘价（港元）] | 24.55 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（港元） | 5.66-48.30 | | 总股本/流通 H 股（百万股） | 1524/1469 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 37425/36060 | Email:ym13254@haitong.com 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《国内 IDC 龙头企业，海外业务高速成长》 20250125 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M | 绝对涨幅（%） | -37.28 | 19.14 | 32.31 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对涨幅（%） | -35.76 | 2.39 | 13.51 | | 资料来源：海通证券研究所 | | | | 分析 ...

证券研究报告 国内业务方面，截止 4Q24 末，公司在运营面积达到 613,583 平方米（同比 增长 12%），机柜利用率达 73.8%，环比小幅提升 0.2pct，单价约为 2011 元/平米/月，相对保持平稳。自 2025 年以来，国内数据中心需求端明显回 暖，公司国内业务新签订单量达到 152MW，未来公司仍有较为丰富的核心 地带资源储备，有望为后续业务发展提供增长动能。海外业务方面，截止 4Q24 末，DayOne 累计签单规模达到 467MW，在运营规模达到 121MW， 2024 年共形成收入/经调整 EBITDA 1.73/0.45 亿美元，保持着良好的发展 态势，据公司业绩会，DayOne 计划在未来 18 个月内完成上市工作。 预计 2025 年业绩稳步增长，资本开支保持在合理水平 公司预计其 2025 年总收入为 112.9-115.9 亿元（同比增长 9.4%-12.3%）， 调整后 EBITDA 为 51.9-53.9 亿元（同比增长 6.4%-10.5%），这一业绩指引 部分受到私募 REITS 项目出表的影响，还原该项目出表影响后，公司预计 实现 54 亿元的经调整 EBITDA ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 21 年 月 日 万国数据-SW（09698.HK） 国内新签大单，受益于 AI 大趋势 2024 年使用面积进一步增长，收入稳健增长。4Q24 净新增使用面积 增加 14440 平米，其中 14275 平米为内生增长，165 平米为 B-O-T 项 目。全年新增使用面积 47792 平米，期末已使用面积为 45 万平米，同 比增长 11.8%，上架率达到 73.8%。每平方米年度产生收入同比有所 降低。公司 2024 年收入录得 103 亿人民币，同比增长 5.5%，实现稳 健增长。4Q24 收入同比增长 9.1%至 26.9 亿人民币。2024 年公司实 现了 48.76 亿的经调整 EBITDA，同比增长 3%，经调整 EBITDA 利润 率同比降低 1.2pct 至 47.2%。需要特别说明的是，公司原控股子公司 DayOne 完成 B 轮融资后不再并表，倘若考虑 DayOne 在内的合并报 表，2024 年的经调整 EBITDA 达到 51.9 亿，超出指引的 49.5-51.5 亿。 国内新签大单，受益于 AI 大趋势。1） ...

证券研究报告 | 年报点评报告 gszqdatemark 2025 03 21 年 月 日 万国数据-SW（09698.HK） 国内新签大单，受益于 AI 大趋势 2024 年使用面积进一步增长，收入稳健增长。4Q24 净新增使用面积 增加 14440 平米，其中 14275 平米为内生增长，165 平米为 B-O-T 项 目。全年新增使用面积 47792 平米，期末已使用面积为 45 万平米，同 比增长 11.8%，上架率达到 73.8%。每平方米年度产生收入同比有所 降低。公司 2024 年收入录得 103 亿人民币，同比增长 5.5%，实现稳 健增长。4Q24 收入同比增长 9.1%至 26.9 亿人民币。2024 年公司实 现了 48.76 亿的经调整 EBITDA，同比增长 3%，经调整 EBITDA 利润 率同比降低 1.2pct 至 47.2%。需要特别说明的是，公司原控股子公司 DayOne 完成 B 轮融资后不再并表，倘若考虑 DayOne 在内的合并报 表，2024 年的经调整 EBITDA 达到 51.9 亿，超出指引的 49.5-51.5 亿。 国内新签大单，受益于 AI 大趋势。1） ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司、香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）及香港中央結算有限公 司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不就因 本公告全部或任何部分內容所產生或因依賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 萬國數據控股有限公司*（「本公司」）以不同投票權控制。股東及有意投資者務請留意投資不同 投票權架構公司的潛在風險，特別是不同投票權受益人的利益未必總與股東整體利益一致，而 不論其他股東如何投票，不同投票權受益人會對股東決議案的結果有重大影響。我們的美國存 託股（每股美國存託股代表八股A類普通股）於美國納斯達克全球市場上市，股份代號為GDS。 GDS Holdings Limited 萬國數據控股有限公司* （於開曼群島以GDS Holdings Limited的名稱註冊成立及以不同投票權控制的有限公司， 並以GDS WanGuo Holdings Limited於香港經營業務） （股份代號：9698） 我們謹此宣佈截至2024 年12 月31 日止第四季度及全年的未經審計財務業績 （「業績公告」）。業績公告可於香港聯交所網站 www.hkexnews.hk 及我們 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 36.53, indicating a potential upside of 91% from the current price [7][16]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the domestic IDC industry and is experiencing rapid growth in its overseas business, particularly in the international data center market [5][6]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue growth of 6.8% year-on-year, reaching approximately RMB 9.96 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA increase of 8.8% to about RMB 4.62 billion [2][16]. - The international revenue for the third quarter of 2024 saw a remarkable growth of 636.3% year-on-year, contributing to the overall revenue growth of 13.78% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the adjusted EBITDA margin was 46.4%, while the net loss was around RMB 4.29 billion [2][16]. - In the first three quarters of 2024, the adjusted EBITDA was approximately RMB 3.79 billion, with a margin of 45.00% [3][16]. - The company’s total service capacity reached 882,200 square meters by the end of Q3 2024, with a commitment rate of 92.7% and a utilization rate of 74.4% [3][16]. Revenue and EBITDA Forecast - Projected revenues for the company from 2024 to 2026 are RMB 11.55 billion, RMB 11.36 billion, and RMB 12.49 billion, respectively, with corresponding EBITDA estimates of RMB 5.03 billion, RMB 4.97 billion, and RMB 5.08 billion [6][16]. - The overseas entity GDSI is expected to generate revenues of RMB 1.23 billion, RMB 4.05 billion, and RMB 7.69 billion from 2024 to 2026, with EBITDA of RMB 333 million, RMB 1.36 billion, and RMB 2.81 billion [6][16]. Valuation - The combined valuation of the company, considering both GDSH and GDSI, is estimated at RMB 51.79 billion (HKD 55.69 billion) [7][16]. - The valuation for GDSH is projected at RMB 36.99 billion, while GDSI is valued at RMB 41.56 billion [7][16].

Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained with a target price increase to HKD 22.88, implying a potential upside of 29.3% [1][3][10] Core Views - Strong performance in international business drives target price upgrade [1] - Q3 2024 results meet expectations with revenue of RMB 2.97 billion, up 17.7% YoY, and adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.30 billion, up 15.0% YoY [1][6] - Full-year 2024 revenue guidance maintained at RMB 11.34-11.76 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be RMB 4.95-5.15 billion [1][6] - CAPEX guidance for 2024 increased from RMB 6.5 billion to RMB 11.0 billion to support accelerated expansion in both domestic and international markets [1] Domestic Business - Q3 2024 domestic revenue reached RMB 2.62 billion, up 6.1% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of RMB 1.21 billion, up 3.6% YoY [2] - Adjusted EBITDA margin for domestic business declined by 1.0 ppt YoY to 43.7% [2] - Newly added operational area in Q3 2024 was 25,647 sqm, significantly higher than 20,265 sqm in Q2 2024 [2] - Total operational area in China for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 62,744 sqm, surpassing the full-year 2023 figure of 48,739 sqm [2] International Business - Secured a large-scale contract in Batam with a committed/reserved capacity of 34/38MW, expected to be operational within 18 months [2] - Announced a multi-billion RMB investment in Thailand for a data center campus with a planned power capacity of 120MW [2] - Total locked capacity for international clients reached 431MW by Q3 2024, up from 111MW in Q3 2023 and 388MW in Q2 2024 [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 service revenue increased by 17.7% YoY to RMB 2.97 billion, with a 4.9% QoQ growth [6] - Adjusted gross profit rose by 20.4% YoY to RMB 1.50 billion, with an adjusted gross margin of 50.7% [6] - Operating area reached 595,606 sqm, up 9.9% YoY, with a utilization rate of 73.6% [6] - Total committed and pre-committed area increased by 3.5% YoY to 626,783 sqm [6] Industry Coverage - The report also covers other data center companies such as SUNeVision Holdings (1686 HK) with a Buy rating and a target price of HKD 4.50, and 21Vianet Group (VNET US) which is unrated [10]

Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, GDS Holdings reported a net revenue of RMB 2,965.7 million (USD 422.6 million), a year-on-year increase of 17.7% from RMB 2,519.0 million[7]. - The net loss for Q3 2024 was RMB 231.1 million (USD 32.9 million), a significant improvement compared to a net loss of RMB 420.8 million in Q3 2023[7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 grew by 15.0% year-on-year to RMB 1,295.7 million (USD 184.6 million), with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 43.7%[7]. - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 656.9 million (USD 93.6 million), a 46.8% increase from RMB 447.4 million in the same period last year, resulting in a gross margin of 22.2%[11]. - Adjusted gross profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 1,502.3 million (USD 214.1 million), up 20.4% year-on-year, with an adjusted gross margin of 50.7%[13]. - The basic and diluted loss per share for Q3 2024 was RMB 0.14 (USD 0.02), compared to RMB 0.30 in Q3 2023[17]. - The company confirmed its revenue guidance for 2024 to be between RMB 11,340 million and RMB 11,760 million, with adjusted EBITDA remaining unchanged at RMB 4,950 million to RMB 5,150 million[33]. Operational Metrics - As of September 30, 2024, the total contracted and pre-contracted area reached 785,692 square meters, representing a 20.2% increase year-on-year[8]. - The operational area increased by 16.8% year-on-year to 647,468 square meters, with a utilization rate of 92.7%[8]. - The total signed and pre-signed area in China reached 626,783 square meters by the end of Q3 2024, a 2.9% year-over-year increase[22]. - The operational area in China increased to 595,606 square meters, reflecting a 10.2% year-over-year growth[24]. - The total signed and pre-signed area internationally surged to 158,910 square meters, a 256.4% increase compared to Q3 2023[26]. - The billing area reached 43,165 square meters, a year-over-year increase of 692.1% compared to 5,449 square meters at the end of Q3 2023[29]. - The billing rate for the operational area at the end of Q3 2024 was 83.2%, compared to 40.1% at the end of Q3 2023 and 84.1% at the end of Q2 2024[29]. Strategic Initiatives - The company’s strategic focus on selective new orders while delivering contracted but unbilled space has contributed to its growth in China[10]. - The recent USD 1 billion equity financing will support GDS Holdings' ambitious international expansion plans, enhancing potential shareholder value[10]. - GDS Holdings is focused on expanding its data center solutions and related services in response to the expected growth in the high-performance data center market in China and Southeast Asia[48]. - The company aims to strengthen relationships with new and existing customers, anticipating continued adoption of cloud computing and services in the region[48]. - GDS Holdings is actively exploring strategic acquisitions and investments to enhance its market position and service offerings[48]. Financial Position - The cash balance as of September 30, 2024, was RMB 9,408.5 million (USD 1,340.7 million)[20]. - The total debt for GDSH was RMB 43,361.6 million (USD 6,179.0 million) as of Q3 2024[21]. - The total assets reached RMB 82,342,273 as of September 30, 2024, compared to RMB 74,446,690 as of December 31, 2023, marking an increase of approximately 10.5%[53]. - The company’s total liabilities increased to RMB 57,548,895 as of September 30, 2024, from RMB 54,322,887 as of December 31, 2023, reflecting a rise of about 4.1%[53]. Market Outlook and Risks - GDS Holdings faces risks related to market competition, regulatory changes, and operational challenges that could impact its business performance[48]. - The company is committed to maintaining or increasing its revenue and business capabilities amid fluctuating economic conditions[48]. - The company’s financial performance and growth expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, as outlined in its filings with the SEC and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange[48].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on GDS Holdings with a "Recommend" rating [2][3] Core Views - GDS Holdings is a global leader in data center services, with a strong presence in China and expanding into Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia [2] - The company's revenue has shown steady growth, with overseas business surging by 494% YoY in 2023 [2] - The domestic market for data centers in China is growing due to increasing demand for computing power and digital transformation [2] - Southeast Asia's data center market has significant growth potential, driven by rapid expansion in the digital economy and AI technology [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 114.2/135.8/160.1 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with EBITDA of 48.6/55.5/64.5 billion RMB [2] Company Overview - GDS Holdings has transitioned from a service-oriented model to a resource-driven model since 2009, expanding its data center coverage across key regions in China and internationally [2][6] - The company has a robust portfolio of self-developed and third-party data centers, with a total net floor area of 565,062 square meters as of December 31, 2023 [9] - GDS Holdings uses a VIE structure for its operations in mainland China and directly controls its subsidiaries in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia [10] Financial Performance - In 2023, GDS Holdings reported total revenue of 9,957 billion RMB, with a 6.8% YoY growth [2][15] - The company's overseas business revenue reached 223 billion RMB in 2023, with a 494% YoY increase [15] - EBITDA margin improved to 24.7% in the first half of 2024, indicating a recovery in profitability [19] Market Trends - China's data center market is experiencing a clusterization trend, with deployments shifting from central to peripheral areas and from east to west [25][26] - The Southeast Asian digital economy is expanding rapidly, with a projected growth rate of 15.8% over the next five years, surpassing the US and EU [36] - AI technology is driving increased demand for data centers in Southeast Asia, with the AI market expected to grow at a CAGR of 28.53% from 2024 to 2030 [42] Strategic Initiatives - GDS Holdings is focusing on green data center solutions, aiming to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 [34] - The company is accelerating its overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, with new data center projects in Malaysia and Indonesia [48] - GDS Holdings has partnered with overseas power companies to ensure stable electricity supply and is exploring fuel cell power solutions [49] Valuation and Forecast - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to be 14/12/10x for 2024-2026, with a revenue CAGR of 14.7%/18.9%/17.9% [2][54] - GDS Holdings is expected to increase its operational area to 67/80/87 million square meters by 2026, with a corresponding rise in revenue [50]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on GDS Holdings (9698 HK) with a "Recommend" rating [2][54] Core Views - GDS is a leading data center service provider in China and Southeast Asia, with a strong domestic presence and rapid overseas expansion [2][6] - The company's revenue grew steadily to RMB 9,957 billion in 2023, with overseas business surging 494% YoY [2] - Domestic computing power demand is increasing, driving data center development, while Southeast Asia presents significant growth potential [2][36] - GDS is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 114 2/135 8/160 1 billion in 2024-2026, with EBITDA of RMB 48 6/55 5/64 5 billion [2][54] Company Overview - GDS transformed from a service-oriented to resource-driven model since 2009, expanding data center coverage across major Chinese cities and entering Southeast Asian markets [2][6] - The company operates 93 self-developed data centers with a total net floor area of 565,062 m² as of December 31, 2023 [9] - GDS uses a VIE structure for its mainland China operations and directly controls overseas subsidiaries [10] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached RMB 9,957 billion, with service income accounting for 99 99% [15] - Overseas business grew rapidly, with service income increasing 494% YoY to RMB 223 billion in 2023 [15] - EBITDA margin recovered to 24 7% in 1H2024, indicating improved profitability [19] Domestic Market - China's data center industry shows clustering trends, with deployments shifting from central to peripheral areas and east to west [25][26] - The company focuses on liquid cooling, energy storage, and hydrogen energy technologies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 [34] - GDS actively participates in China's East Data West Computing project, transferring data center layouts from first-tier cities to surrounding areas [33] Southeast Asia Expansion - Southeast Asia's digital economy is growing rapidly, with IDC predicting a 15 8% growth rate, surpassing the US and EU [36] - The region's e-commerce market is booming, with platforms like Shopee leading the way [38] - GDS has established data centers in Malaysia and Indonesia, with plans to expand further in the region [48] Technology and Innovation - GDS is developing innovative solutions like the Turbo series, focusing on liquid cooling, energy storage, and hydrogen energy [34] - The company is exploring fuel cell power solutions in collaboration with SK ecoplant [49] Future Outlook - GDS is expected to increase its operational area to 670,000/800,000/870,000 m² in 2024-2026 [50] - The company's gross margin is projected to rise to 21 4%/24 7%/27 9% in 2024-2026 [50] - GDS's EV/EBITDA is forecasted at 14/12/10x for 2024-2026, below the industry average of 17x [54]