Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 6.65, corresponding to a 12x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [4][15]. Core Insights - The main brand's turnover showed improvement in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% and a healthy inventory turnover of four months. Retail discounts improved to 70-75% in Q4 2024 compared to 70% in Q4 2023 [4][11]. - Saucony's revenue is expected to exceed 1 billion RMB, with a 50% year-on-year growth in Q4 2024 and a 60% increase for the entire year. The brand became profitable in 2023 and is expected to see further profitability improvements with full ownership from January 2024 [4][12]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and upgrading its channels, including new concept stores in major cities and a diverse product range that includes shoes and apparel [4][13]. - The main brand and Saucony have solidified their positions in the marathon shoe market, with the main brand achieving a wear rate of 22.4% in the Shanghai Marathon, surpassing international brands [4][14]. - The company is optimistic about its running product matrix and anticipates a second growth curve with Saucony's profitability. Estimated net profits for 2024 and 2025 are projected at 1.26 billion RMB and 1.39 billion RMB, respectively [4][15]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 14,346 million RMB in 2023 to 18,331 million RMB by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.64% [3][8]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1,044 million RMB in 2023 to 1,564 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.25% [3][8]. - The gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually from 42.17% in 2023 to 43.25% in 2026, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [3][8].
特步国际：公司公告点评：24Q4主品牌流水回暖，索康尼全年收入规模有望破10亿-20250213