美国CPI点评（2025.1）：核心通胀不降反升，美联储还能降息吗？

Inflation Data - In January 2025, the overall CPI and core CPI in the U.S. increased to 3.0% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, both up by 0.1 percentage points from December 2024[1] - The month-on-month increases for January were 0.47% for overall CPI and 0.45% for core CPI, marking the highest levels in nearly 17 and 21 months, respectively[1] Core CPI Drivers - The rise in core CPI is attributed to three main factors: a tightening labor market leading to higher wages, the implementation of tariffs causing price increases in durable goods, and rising rents due to the ongoing monetary easing cycle[1] - Core services and core non-durable goods saw month-on-month increases of 0.72% and 0.18%, respectively, with the former reaching a 12-month high[1] Economic Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in 2025 has decreased significantly due to persistent inflation pressures[1] - The combination of fiscal expansion, tariffs, and immigration controls under the Trump administration is expected to maintain high economic growth and inflation levels in the U.S.[1] Market Implications - The potential for a rising dollar index is anticipated if core inflation continues to increase, which could exert pressure on the Chinese central bank's monetary policy options[1] - The report suggests that the Chinese central bank may need to rely on reserve requirement ratio cuts to provide liquidity, with limited space for interest rate reductions throughout 2025[1] Risk Factors - A failure by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates could lead to a surge in the dollar index, increasing depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan[2]