海外观察：2025年1月美国CPI：美国通胀反弹，降息预期推迟

Group 1: Inflation Data - In January 2025, the US CPI increased by 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 2.9% and matching the previous value of 2.9%[4] - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.5%, higher than the expected 0.3% and the previous value of 0.4%[4] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 3.3%, above the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%[4] Group 2: Market Implications - The market's expectation for the first interest rate cut of the year has been pushed back to after September 2025 due to the inflation data exceeding expectations[4] - Following the data release, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index rose, while US stocks fell and gold prices increased[4] Group 3: Price Components - Energy prices saw a narrowing increase, with a month-on-month rise of 1.1%, down from 1.3% in the previous month[4] - Used car prices provided support for core goods, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% compared to 0.0% previously[4] - Transportation services within core services rose significantly by 1.8% month-on-month, potentially influenced by seasonal price adjustments[4] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The high inflation and interest rate environment may negatively impact consumer spending, which is crucial for maintaining economic resilience[4] - The implementation pace of fiscal policies under Trump could become a significant variable affecting future economic conditions[4]