银行股投研框架探讨

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform Market" (maintained rating) [1][59] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the framework for bank stock investment research, emphasizing the drivers of Price-to-Book (PB) recovery, which include rising Return on Equity (ROE), declining dividend yields, and increasing dividend payout ratios [4][5][6] - The report highlights that the ROE can be predicted through its components, including net interest margin, non-interest income, credit costs, and management fees, all adjusted for leverage [9][18] - It notes that the cash dividend payout ratio of Chinese banks, exemplified by China Merchants Bank's 35% in 2023, has room for improvement compared to some overseas banks [4][48] Summary by Sections ROE Upward Trend - ROE is defined as ROA multiplied by leverage, which is further broken down into net interest margin, non-interest income, credit costs, and management fees [9][18] - The report provides historical data showing the trends of PB and ROE for China Merchants Bank from 2013 to 2024, indicating a correlation between the two metrics [11][15] Declining Dividend Yield - The report states that the dividend yield is influenced by the necessary return rate of funds and risk premiums, with potential factors for a decline in dividend yield including a decrease in necessary return rates and a narrowing of risk premiums [39][40] - Historical data illustrates the relationship between dividend yield and risk premiums, showing significant fluctuations from 2013 to 2023 [41][42] Increasing Dividend Payout Ratio - The report emphasizes that there is potential for increasing the cash dividend payout ratio among Chinese banks, with a comparative analysis showing that China Merchants Bank's ratio is lower than that of several international banks [48][49]