TRIP.COM(09961) 麦高证券·2025-02-14 00:32Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in service consumption in China, with a shift from physical goods to services as income levels rise, indicating a large room for growth compared to developed countries [2][22] - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with increasing consumer willingness to spend on travel, particularly in cross-border tourism, which is expected to further elevate tourism consumption levels [2][28] - Ctrip's competitive positioning is strengthened by its early entry into the OTA market, extensive resource accumulation, and a robust global expansion strategy [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Service Consumption Rise and Online Travel Growth Potential - The trend from physical to service consumption is evident, with service consumption in China still having significant growth potential compared to developed nations [2][22] - Domestic tourism is rebounding strongly, with 2024 domestic travel expected to reach 5.615 billion trips, a 14.8% increase year-on-year [28] - Cross-border travel is recovering, with 2024 seeing nearly 95 million outbound trips, a 52% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong demand for international travel [33][37] 2. Ctrip: Competitive Advantages and Product Strength - Ctrip has a first-mover advantage in the OTA market, with a comprehensive resource base and strong brand recognition [3][59] - The company is leveraging its technological capabilities to enhance user experience and product offerings, focusing on high-end market segments [3][64] - Ctrip's global strategy includes significant investments in overseas markets, particularly through its brands Trip.com and Skyscanner, which are gaining traction in the Asia-Pacific region [4][64] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenues of 528.5 billion, 609.49 billion, and 682.46 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 166.53 billion, 181.65 billion, and 208.52 billion yuan [10][11] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% for the online travel market from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing internet penetration and service consumption [56][58]