DEPPON(SH:603056) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-02-14 01:57Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][6] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the direct express logistics sector, with expected growth from network integration and market expansion [4][8] - The overall market for express logistics is projected to grow, driven by increasing penetration rates and the recovery of the macroeconomic environment [5][28] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 36,279 million RMB in 2023 to 48,399 million RMB in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 10.39% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 746 million RMB in 2023 to 1,388 million RMB in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 29.64% [4][6] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.73 RMB in 2023 to 1.35 RMB in 2026 [4] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a comprehensive logistics network, enhancing its service capabilities and competitive edge [49] - The direct operation model allows for better control over service quality and operational efficiency [52] - The acquisition by JD.com has led to a more stable competitive landscape, reducing the intensity of competition in the direct express logistics market [40][44] Industry Outlook - The express logistics market is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.0% from 2022 to 2027, with the market size projected to reach 1,798.1 billion RMB by 2027 [5][31] - The direct express logistics segment is anticipated to grow to 824 billion RMB by 2027, with a CAGR of about 7.4% from 2024 to 2027 [44] Operational Efficiency - The company has made significant improvements in operational efficiency, with a reduction in costs and an increase in service quality through technology and process optimization [61] - The logistics network includes 7,956 service points and 165 distribution centers, ensuring extensive coverage and efficient service delivery [49][50] Collaboration with JD.com - The partnership with JD.com is expected to yield significant synergies, with projected service revenue of 80.5 billion RMB by 2025 [64]