国君食饮|预期转暖,估值修复

Investment Rating - The report suggests a potential valuation recovery for the liquor sector, indicating that recent stock price movements have largely reflected market pessimism, with expectations of policy improvements supporting this outlook [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a stable fundamental environment, with the "opening red" performance in 2025 aligning with expectations and a general post-festival stability in operations. The report anticipates a decline in the overall liquor market by less than 10%, with sales revenue expected to drop more than volume due to price declines [2]. - Recent macroeconomic policies have become more positive, with a focus on boosting consumption as a priority for domestic demand expansion. Initiatives such as the issuance of consumption vouchers are expected to stimulate related sectors, particularly dining [1]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is currently facing high inventory levels, prompting companies to focus on inventory reduction and channel profitability. Major brands have begun controlling inventory and adjusting sales strategies to manage cash flow [2]. Summary by Sections - Market Performance: The liquor sector's performance during the "opening red" period in 2025 was in line with expectations, with a projected decline in market size of less than 10%. Mid to low-end liquor products are outperforming high-end counterparts [2]. - Policy Environment: Recent government policies are aimed at enhancing consumer spending, with specific measures to support income growth and consumption capabilities. This is expected to positively influence the liquor market [1]. - Valuation and Stock Performance: As of February 12, stock prices for major liquor brands have adjusted to reflect pessimistic market expectations, with valuations for key companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye at relatively low levels, suggesting potential for recovery [2].