国君宏观|低物价与稳汇率的破局:回归“巴-萨效应”

Group 1: Economic Theory and Challenges - The "Balassa-Samuelson effect" indicates that differences in actual exchange rates and inflation levels between two countries are fundamentally determined by productivity differences in their tradable sectors, particularly manufacturing[1] - Higher productivity in the tradable sector leads to higher price levels and stronger currency purchasing power[1] - Despite significant productivity improvements in China, the country faces low price levels and exchange rate stability pressures, indicating a disconnect from classical theory[1] Group 2: Wage Transmission Issues - The transmission of productivity gains to wages, especially in the service sector, is crucial for the "Balassa-Samuelson effect" to hold[2] - Labor compensation in East Asian countries, including China, is generally lower than in Western countries, hindering the transmission of productivity to wages[2] - Since 2017, the growth rate of labor compensation in China has slowed, with a decline noted in 2021, despite significant productivity gains in manufacturing[2] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Implications - The allocation of fiscal funds is more important than the scale of spending; effective transmission of "productivity-wage-inflation" is essential for the "Balassa-Samuelson effect" to be realized[3] - Current market expectations for increased fiscal deficits and stimulus may reflect traditional investment-focused fiscal thinking, which may not yield the desired economic impact[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There are discrepancies between international and historical experiences compared to China's unique circumstances, which may affect the applicability of the findings[4] - Inconsistencies in statistical definitions across international comparative data may also pose challenges to the analysis[4]