美国2025年1月CPI数据点评

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2025, the US CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and the previous value[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.5%, marking the largest increase since August 2023, surpassing the expected 0.3% and previous 0.4%[1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 3.3% year-on-year, above the expected 3.1% and previous 3.2%[1] Contributing Factors - Energy inflation turned positive at 1.0% year-on-year, up 1.5 percentage points from December 2024, driven by rising international oil prices[3] - Food inflation increased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month rise of 0.4%, influenced by avian flu and egg shortages[3] - The rebound in used car prices reduced the negative impact on core goods inflation, with used car prices increasing by 1.0% year-on-year, up 4.3 percentage points from December 2024[3] Core Inflation Insights - Core services inflation showed a slight decline, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from December 2024[4] - Housing inflation contributed to the easing of core services inflation, with major rent and owner-equivalent rent growth slowing down[4] Future Outlook - Despite the January CPI rebound, inflation is not expected to enter a sustained upward cycle, as seasonal factors and one-time disturbances may affect the data[5] - The expectation is for a return to a downward trend in CPI over the coming months, although volatility in the deflation process may increase[6] - The likelihood of a rate cut in March 2025 is low, but a potential cut in May or June remains on the table due to anticipated weaker inflation data[8]