美国1月CPI数据解读：近忧可释，远虑待解

Inflation Data Analysis - The January CPI in the U.S. increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9%[12] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, higher than the expected 3.1% and previous 3.2%[12] - The market has adjusted its expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut from June to September due to the inflation data[12] Inflation Components - The rise in January CPI is partly attributed to seasonal adjustments, as companies often adjust prices at the beginning of the year[2] - Core service inflation is slowly declining, while core goods inflation has rebounded, indicating a mixed inflationary environment[3] - Energy inflation was high in December and January, but oil prices have started to decline since mid-January, suggesting energy will not drive inflation upward in the next CPI report[20] Housing and Rent Trends - Rent inflation is in a downward trend, with new tenant rents decreasing by 2.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, which supports the deflationary process[23] - Housing accounts for nearly one-third of the CPI, indicating its significant impact on overall inflation trends[23] Policy Uncertainty - Economic policy uncertainty is currently at a high level, second only to the peak during the pandemic, which may delay the Federal Reserve's rate cuts further[23] - The uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs and tax cuts proposed by Trump and other countries' responses could influence future inflation[3] Risk Factors - Risks include a potential unexpected weakening of the U.S. economy and a rapid deterioration of the employment market[25]