亚洲聚焦：评估中国以旧换新政策的影响

Group 1: Policy Impact on Retail and GDP - The "cash-for-clunkers" policy in China is expected to boost retail sales by RMB 8,000 billion in 2025, contributing 1.2 percentage points to nominal retail growth and 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth[1] - The policy's implementation in late 2024 resulted in an estimated additional retail demand of RMB 2,200 billion from September to December, equating to 45 basis points of total retail sales and 15 basis points of GDP for the year[10] - The government allocated RMB 1,500 billion in subsidies in August 2024, significantly increasing sales of automobiles and home appliances[1] Group 2: Comparison of Estimates - Official estimates from the Ministry of Commerce suggested that the policy drove sales exceeding RMB 13 trillion, raising annual retail growth by 1 percentage point, which is significantly higher than independent estimates[2] - The fiscal multiplier effect of the combined central and local subsidies is estimated at 0.9, while the multiplier for only the national subsidy is 1.5[17] - The report indicates that the actual impact of the policy may be lower in the long term due to the preemptive nature of demand release[1] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The policy has led to a significant increase in the number of trade-in applications, with 6.6 million applications recorded in 2024, of which 2.9 million were under national subsidies and 3.7 million under local subsidies[5] - The automotive and home appliance sectors are identified as the primary beneficiaries of the policy, with estimated sales boosts of RMB 1,960 billion and RMB 840 billion, respectively[14] - The policy appears to favor offline sales and larger retail enterprises over online sales and smaller retailers[17]