Applovin(APP)2025-02-14 07:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for AppLovin (APP.US) with a target price of $535, indicating a potential upside of 41% from the current price of $380.32 [4][7]. Core Insights - AppLovin's Q4 2024 revenue reached $1.373 billion, a year-over-year increase of 44.0%, exceeding market expectations by 8.6%. The net profit was $599 million, with a net profit margin increase of 25.6 percentage points to 43.6%. Adjusted EBITDA was $848 million, surpassing market expectations by 10.9%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin improvement of 11.8 percentage points to 61.8% [7][8]. - The company is transitioning to a pure advertising platform by divesting its existing Apps business, expected to generate a total transaction value of $900 million, which is anticipated to significantly enhance profit margins. The company aims to expand its advertiser coverage beyond gaming, leveraging AI to automate ad placements and attributions [7][8]. - E-commerce is projected to contribute significantly this year, with the advertising business growing by 73% year-over-year in Q4 2024. The company expects e-commerce to account for 10% of total revenue by year-end [7][8]. - The target price has been raised to $535 based on strong advertising performance, with revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to $4.5 billion and $5.6 billion, respectively, and adjusted EBITDA margins projected at 79% and 80% [7][8]. Financial Summary - For FY23, AppLovin's revenue is projected at $3.283 billion, with operating profit of $648 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.503 billion. By FY27, revenue is expected to reach $8.037 billion, with operating profit of $3.962 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $5.628 billion [3][8]. - The company’s net profit is forecasted to grow from $357 million in FY23 to $3.390 billion in FY27, reflecting a significant increase in profitability over the forecast period [8].