MGM CHINA(02282) 东吴证券·2025-02-14 08:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MGM China [6][7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 exceeded expectations, with total revenue reaching HKD 79.2 billion, a 9.3% increase quarter-on-quarter, and a recovery to 139.1% of Q4 2019 levels [6] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q4 2024 was HKD 21.3 billion, a 7.2% quarter-on-quarter increase, surpassing market expectations by 3% [6] - The company is expected to attract more inbound tourists due to the opening of "MGM 2049" and the renovation of suites, positively impacting revenue [6] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2024-2026 are HKD 31,381.9 million, HKD 33,635.5 million, and HKD 35,193.5 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 7%, and 5% [6][7] - The adjusted property EBITDA forecasts for the same period are HKD 9,244.1 million, HKD 10,206.2 million, and HKD 10,850.7 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 10%, and 6% [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/adjusted property EBITDA multiples of 6.0, 5.4, and 5.1 for 2024-2026 [6][7]