Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China National Building Material (CNBM) with a target price of HKD 4.53, based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 8x [7]. Core Views - CNBM is a leading state-owned enterprise in the building materials sector, with significant confidence in its development demonstrated through a large share buyback program [1][2]. - The company has faced performance pressure since 2022, but forecasts suggest a potential recovery in profits due to reduced capital expenditures and financial costs [1][40]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at HKD 199.3 billion, HKD 216.2 billion, and HKD 229.0 billion, with corresponding net profits of HKD 1.2 billion, HKD 4.4 billion, and HKD 5.6 billion [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - CNBM is directly managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with operations in basic building materials, new materials, and engineering services [1][14]. - The company has a global leading position in seven business segments, including cement and glass fiber, and operates 13 listed companies [1][14]. 2. Basic Building Materials - The basic building materials segment, primarily cement, has seen declining profitability since 2022, with a revenue drop of 30.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [3][44]. - The segment's gross margin has decreased from 27% in 2020 to 8.8% in the first half of 2024 [3][44]. 3. New Materials - The new materials segment has shown revenue growth, but profits have slightly declined since 2022, with a revenue increase of 0.6% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [4]. - Revenue projections for this segment from 2024 to 2026 are expected to be HKD 49.6 billion, HKD 59.1 billion, and HKD 62.8 billion, with net profits of HKD 2.7 billion, HKD 3.6 billion, and HKD 4.1 billion respectively [4][16]. 4. Engineering Services - The engineering services segment has maintained stable revenue and has seen a slight increase in profits since 2021, with a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [5]. - Future revenue estimates for this segment are HKD 50.3 billion, HKD 55.8 billion, and HKD 61.6 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits of HKD 1.5 billion, HKD 1.8 billion, and HKD 1.9 billion [5][16]. 5. Financial Performance and Valuation - The company has experienced a significant decline in net profit, with a forecasted drop of 69% in 2024, followed by a recovery of 262% in 2025 [11]. - The current price-to-book ratio is at a historical low of 0.26x, indicating potential undervaluation [2][35].
中国建材：航母级建材央企龙头，大手笔回购彰显发展信心-20250214