国内提振消费再加力，美联储或不急于降息

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government is continuing a moderately loose monetary policy to boost consumption and stabilize foreign investment, with a focus on enhancing residents' income and consumption capacity[1] - The State Council has approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment," aiming to address structural contradictions in key industries and promote high-quality economic development[1] - Shanghai has introduced a comprehensive policy package to support economic recovery, targeting a GDP growth of around 5% for 2025[1] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. rose by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to reconsider the pace of interest rate cuts[2] - U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year and three years remain at 3%, while five-year expectations have increased from 2.7% to 3%[2] - In China, the first week of February saw a significant increase in real estate sales, with a week-on-week rise of 89.32%[4] Commodity Prices - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices rose by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[4] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar and cement prices fell by 0.65% and 0.09% respectively[4] Global Economic Outlook - OPEC forecasts a global oil demand increase of 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, driven by growth in air and road transport[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates may be influenced by rising inflation and economic strength, with a reduced likelihood of rate cuts in March[2]