广发证券：业务结构与业绩预期改善，估值有望上修-20250214

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company from "Hold" to "Buy" [2][8] Core Views - The company's valuation is expected to improve due to enhanced business structure and performance outlook [7][8] - The company has experienced a recovery in its business capabilities and is benefiting from a market rebound in asset management [5][7] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growth of its wealth management and asset management businesses, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [7][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2022: Revenue of 25,132.01 million, Net Profit of 7,929.28 million - 2023: Revenue of 23,299.53 million, Net Profit of 6,977.80 million - 2024E: Revenue of 27,260.98 million, Net Profit of 8,352.16 million - 2025E: Revenue of 32,743.81 million, Net Profit of 10,671.84 million - 2026E: Revenue of 37,418.61 million, Net Profit of 12,656.90 million - The expected growth rates for net profit are +19.70% in 2024, +27.77% in 2025, and +18.60% in 2026 [6][8] Business Structure and Performance Improvement - The company has improved its business capabilities since 2022, with a focus on investment banking and proprietary trading, leading to a recovery in performance rankings [7][42] - The asset management business is expected to benefit from the market's recovery, with significant contributions from its holdings in leading public funds [10][11] - The company has a stable shareholder structure and an experienced management team, which supports its long-term strategic goals [51][54] Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company has a unique regional advantage in wealth management and asset management, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which enhances its growth potential [7][10] - The company is actively exploring new models in wealth management, including advisory services, to address market needs [10][11] - The company's asset scale has expanded rapidly, with total assets reaching 7,706.5 billion as of Q3 2024, marking a significant increase from previous years [46]