宏观周报：国内提振消费再加力，美联储或不急于降息

Domestic Economic Policies - The Chinese government continues to adopt a moderately loose monetary policy to stimulate consumption and stabilize foreign investment[1] - The State Council approved the "2025 Action Plan for Stabilizing Foreign Investment" to address structural contradictions in key industries[1] - Shanghai's government has implemented a comprehensive policy package to support economic growth in Q1 2025, aiming for a GDP growth target of around 5%[12] Inflation and Consumer Trends - January's CPI in the U.S. increased by 3% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, which may reduce the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in March[21] - The New York Fed's survey indicates that U.S. consumers expect inflation to remain at 3% for the next year and three years, with a rise in five-year inflation expectations to 3%[19] - In China, the government is focusing on enhancing consumer income and promoting consumption in key sectors, with a projected increase in consumer spending due to policies like "trade-in for new" initiatives[11] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices rose by 0.79% week-on-week, while copper and iron ore prices increased by 1.62% and 1.02%, respectively[27] - In contrast, the price index for thermal coal decreased by 0.83%, and rebar prices fell by 0.65% week-on-week[31] - OPEC forecasts global oil demand to increase by 1.45 million barrels per day in 2025, maintaining previous estimates despite potential trade uncertainties[24]