两会看点前瞻：从科技到消费

Economic Targets - The GDP target for 2025 is set at around 5% or higher across various regions, with an average target of approximately 5.3%[3] - Most local governments have set their public budget revenue targets conservatively, generally between 2% and 4.5%, significantly lower than their GDP targets[4] - The national unemployment rate target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5.5%[7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) target is likely to decrease from around 3% in previous years to approximately 2%[9] New Productivity Policies - A shift in local government competition from GDP growth to the development of new productivity, focusing on industries like artificial intelligence, robotics, and biomanufacturing[12] - 29 regions have prioritized artificial intelligence, 14 regions have focused on robotics, and 30 regions have emphasized biomanufacturing in their development plans[12] Consumption Promotion Policies - Over 10 regions have proposed to improve the normal growth mechanism for workers' wages, indicating potential reforms aimed at increasing consumer spending[17] - The reform plan may include strategies to "raise the lower, expand the middle, and limit the high" income groups, which could enhance overall consumer spending[18] - There is a strong emphasis on service consumption, with all 31 regions planning to expand service consumption in areas like health, tourism, and digital services[19] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The stock market is expected to outperform the bond market, with high financing balances indicating positive investor sentiment[22] - Focus on consumer and biomanufacturing sectors is recommended, as reforms in wage mechanisms may trigger growth in the consumer sector[25] - The technology sector, particularly biomanufacturing, is anticipated to become a significant growth area following artificial intelligence and robotics[25] Risk Factors - Potential risks include uncertainties in overseas economic policies and domestic policy implementations falling short of expectations[26]